Genk 4-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genk and Charleroi meet at Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 16 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk at Cegeka Arena this season: 3W 2D 3L from 8 home games — 1.38 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.38 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Genk are significantly better at Cegeka Arena than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi away from home this season: 5W 3D 1L from 9 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.11 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Charleroi arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 61% versus Charleroi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 56% | Charleroi 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.57 xG and Charleroi 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.061 / defence 1.168 | Charleroi attack 1.071 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.505. Charleroi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Genk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Genk games / 18 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 33% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 45%. Fair-value odds: Genk 3.03 | Draw 4.55 | Charleroi 2.22. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genk 50% | Charleroi 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 33% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Genk 1.57 / Charleroi 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.061 / def 1.168 | Charleroi attack 1.071 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.505 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Charleroi xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Charleroi kick off?
Genk vs Charleroi kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 16 December 2021 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Charleroi?
Genk 4 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is Genk vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Charleroi part of?
Genk vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 33% chance of winning, Charleroi a 45% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Genk and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genk and Charleroi in?
Genk (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Charleroi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genk's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.07x) against Genk's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
33%
3.07
22%
4.51
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Genk xG
Total xG
3.46
1.88
Charleroi xG
3.07
33%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
15%
6.57
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
5%
20.18
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Genk and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Genk and 1.88 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Genk have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 6W 4D 8L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi's form line: 9W 5D 4L from 18 games, 1.78 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Charleroi are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genk.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genk have posted 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 4W 3D 1L from 8 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.78 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 6W 4D 8L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 9W 5D 4L in their last 18 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.38 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Genk or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Charleroi in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-1 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
5
Draws
2
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Charleroi have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Charleroi?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 50%, Charleroi 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Genk and 88% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Genk's games and 75% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Genk's matches and 88% of Charleroi's.
Do Genk and Charleroi tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Charleroi 4-2 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.57 xG and Charleroi 1.88 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Genk beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.06 / defence 1.17 against Charleroi attack 1.07 / defence 1.24, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 33% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 45%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Genk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 56%, Charleroi 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Genk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.