Gent 2-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gent at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gent vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gent and St. Truiden meet at GHELAMCO-arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Gent (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gent have posted 6W 1D 2L at GHELAMCO-arena — 2.11 PPG. They are averaging 2.22 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
St. Truiden have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's away record: 4W 1D 4L from 9 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.44 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Gent. A 1.10 PPG lead over St. Truiden (1.90 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Gent half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 47% versus St. Truiden 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 47% | St. Truiden 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.66 xG and St. Truiden 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.129 / defence 0.878 | St. Truiden attack 0.547 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.533. Data: 19 Gent games / 19 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 59% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 16%. Fair-value odds: Gent 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | St. Truiden 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Gent (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gent at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gent 56% | St. Truiden 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: GHELAMCO-arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 59% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 42% | xG Gent 1.66 / St. Truiden 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.129 / def 0.878 | St. Truiden attack 0.547 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.533 • Poisson stance: Gent (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Gent xG
Expected Goals
0.74
St. Truiden xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs St. Truiden kick off?
Gent vs St. Truiden kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at GHELAMCO-arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs St. Truiden?
Gent 2 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Gent vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at GHELAMCO-arena.
What competition is Gent vs St. Truiden part of?
Gent vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 59% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gent and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and St. Truiden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gent and St. Truiden in?
Gent (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gent's attack rating (1.13) and St. Truiden's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (0.55x) against Gent's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
59%
1.68
24%
4.14
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Gent xG
Total xG
2.39
0.74
St. Truiden xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
28%
3.51
3%
32.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.1 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Gent and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Gent and 0.74 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gent's recent record stands at 9W 3D 7L from 19 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 10L across 19 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gent by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gent have managed 6W 1D 2L from 9 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Gent are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 4W 1D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gent are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.00 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 9W 3D 7L in their last 19 games (1.58 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 6W 3D 10L in their last 19 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or St. Truiden away?
Gent's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 2.11 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Gent or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gent have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gent
4
Draws
3
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 3, St. Truiden have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gent and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when St. Truiden 1-1 Gent.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 56%, St. Truiden 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Gent) and 33% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Gent keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; St. Truiden in 44%; St. Truiden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Gent's recent matches and 33% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gent vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Gent's recent games and 33% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gent and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gent edge out St. Truiden 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat St. Truiden 2-1 at GHELAMCO-arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.66 xG and St. Truiden 0.74 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.13 / defence 0.88 against St. Truiden attack 0.55 / defence 1.20, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 59% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 16%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 47%, St. Truiden 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
St. Truiden's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.