Antwerp 1-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
St. Truiden travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 17:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Antwerp — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Antwerp have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, St. Truiden stand at 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
St. Truiden's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St. Truiden are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Antwerp's games and 70% of St. Truiden's (from Antwerp's last 10 home games and St. Truiden's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Antwerp hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for St. Truiden and 3 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Antwerp 0–1 St. Truiden — a St. Truiden win.
The head-to-head data gives Antwerp an edge — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
St. Truiden trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Antwerp 55% and St. Truiden 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 47% | St. Truiden 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Antwerp surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while St. Truiden have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.11 xG and St. Truiden 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 0.940 / defence 1.053 | St. Truiden attack 1.420 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.370. St. Truiden have an above-average attack rating of 1.420, which lifts their away xG to 2.05. Data: built from Antwerp's last 56 games and St. Truiden's last 56.
Result probabilities: Antwerp 20% | Draw 22% | St. Truiden 59%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 5.10 | Draw 4.59 | St. Truiden 1.71. The model has a clear lean to St. Truiden (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 1), yet St. Truiden are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Antwerp's last 10 home games and St. Truiden's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antwerp 60% (last 10 home games) | St. Truiden 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 20% | Draw 22% | St. Truiden 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Antwerp 1.11 / St. Truiden 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 0.940 / def 1.053 | St. Truiden attack 1.420 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
2.05
St. Truiden xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antwerp vs St. Truiden FAQs
What time does Antwerp vs St. Truiden kick off?
Antwerp vs St. Truiden kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Antwerp 1 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Antwerp vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs St. Truiden part of?
Antwerp vs St. Truiden is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 20% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Antwerp and St. Truiden will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Antwerp vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antwerp's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 2.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Antwerp's last 56 games and St. Truiden's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
20%
5.10
22%
4.59
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
0 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Antwerp xG
Total xG
3.16
2.05
St. Truiden xG
5.10
20%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
13%
7.75
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
3%
39.57
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antwerp vs St. Truiden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Antwerp and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Antwerp and 2.05 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antwerp's recent record stands at 20W 19D 23L from 62 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 21L across 62 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antwerp on 1.27 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 12W 7D 12L from their last 31 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 11W 6D 14L across their last 31 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Antwerp are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.52 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 66%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
Antwerp (Home) vs St. Truiden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antwerp
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Antwerp vs St. Truiden Form FAQs
What form are Antwerp and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 20W 19D 23L in their last 62 games (1.27 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 27W 14D 21L in their last 62 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or St. Truiden away?
Antwerp's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.39 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from January 2022. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Aug 2024, when Antwerp won Antwerp 6-1 St. Truiden.
Antwerp's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Antwerp
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Antwerp vs St. Truiden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Antwerp have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and St. Truiden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Antwerp 1-4 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Antwerp at 64%, St. Truiden at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Antwerp and 64% for St. Truiden. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antwerp vs St. Truiden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antwerp and St. Truiden matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Antwerp's games and 71% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Antwerp and St. Truiden matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Antwerp's matches and 64% of St. Truiden's.
Do Antwerp and St. Truiden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Antwerp's recent matches and 77% of St. Truiden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antwerp defy the odds to beat St. Truiden 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat St. Truiden 1-0 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.11 xG and St. Truiden 2.05 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 0.94 / defence 1.05 against St. Truiden attack 1.42 / defence 0.92, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 20% | Draw 22% | St. Truiden 59%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Antwerp win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 47%, St. Truiden 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
St. Truiden's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.27 PPG, St. Truiden 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.