Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Antwerp at 38%, yet the head-to-head data favours Charleroi — this Antwerp vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antwerp and Charleroi meet at Bosuilstadion in Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Group - 37). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Antwerp's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Charleroi's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Charleroi, who have 5 wins from 8 H2H matches compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2026, ended Antwerp 1–2 Charleroi — a Charleroi win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Charleroi have won 5 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (last 77 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Charleroi — key trading statistics (last 77 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 53% versus Charleroi 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 47% | Charleroi 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Antwerp surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Charleroi have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.24 xG and Charleroi 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 0.940 / defence 0.957 | Charleroi attack 0.930 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Data: built from Antwerp's last 60 games and Charleroi's last 60.
Result probabilities: Antwerp 38% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 35%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 2.64 | Draw 3.63 | Charleroi 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antwerp 40% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 37 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 38% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Antwerp 1.24 / Charleroi 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 0.940 / def 0.957 | Charleroi attack 0.930 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Charleroi xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antwerp vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does Antwerp vs Charleroi kick off?
Antwerp vs Charleroi kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Antwerp 0 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Antwerp vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Charleroi part of?
Antwerp vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Conference League Group - 37) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 38% chance of winning, Charleroi a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Antwerp and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Antwerp vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antwerp's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.93x) against Antwerp's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from Antwerp's last 60 games and Charleroi's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
38%
2.64
28%
3.63
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.42
1.18
Charleroi xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antwerp vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.18 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antwerp's recent record stands at 26W 21D 30L from 77 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 29W 18D 30L across 77 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Antwerp against 1.36 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 15W 8D 16L from their last 39 home games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 12W 9D 18L across their last 39 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Antwerp are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.34 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
Antwerp (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antwerp
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Antwerp vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 26W 21D 30L in their last 77 games (1.29 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 29W 18D 30L in their last 77 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Charleroi away?
Antwerp's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.36 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Antwerp and Charleroi, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won Antwerp 4-1 Charleroi on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 2W 0D 4L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Antwerp
1
Draws
6
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Antwerp vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Antwerp have won 3, Charleroi have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Antwerp 3-0 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 62%, Charleroi 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Antwerp) and 46% (Charleroi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antwerp vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antwerp and Charleroi matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Antwerp's games and 54% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Antwerp and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Antwerp's matches and 46% of Charleroi's.
Do Antwerp and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Antwerp's recent matches and 72% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Antwerp 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Antwerp 0-1 at Bosuilstadion, Conference League Group - 37, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.24 xG and Charleroi 1.18 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Charleroi attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 38% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 35%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 47%, Charleroi 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charleroi's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.29 PPG, Charleroi 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.