Antwerp 0-5 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs Standard Liege encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Conference League Group - 36 as Antwerp welcome Standard Liege to Bosuilstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antwerp have posted 4W 2D 4L at Bosuilstadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Standard Liege — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Standard Liege away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Antwerp) versus 1.60 (Standard Liege). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Antwerp hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Standard Liege, with 2 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Antwerp winning.
The historical record gives Antwerp a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Antwerp in-play and half-time data (75 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Standard Liege in-play and half-time data (75 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 55% versus Standard Liege 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 47% | Standard Liege 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.10 xG and Standard Liege 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 0.938 / defence 0.956 | Standard Liege attack 0.855 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Data: 60 Antwerp games / 60 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 36% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 35%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Standard Liege 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Antwerp 50% | Standard Liege 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 36 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 36% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Antwerp 1.10 / Standard Liege 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 0.938 / def 0.956 | Standard Liege attack 0.855 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Standard Liege xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Standard Liege kick off?
Antwerp vs Standard Liege kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Standard Liege?
Antwerp 0 - 5 Standard Liege.
Where is Antwerp vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Standard Liege part of?
Antwerp vs Standard Liege is a Conference League Group - 36 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 36% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Antwerp and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Standard Liege?
Record (9 meetings): Antwerp 5W | Draws 2 | Standard Liege 2W.
What form are Antwerp and Standard Liege in?
Antwerp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Standard Liege (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (0.94) and Standard Liege's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
36%
2.79
29%
3.41
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.18
1.08
Standard Liege xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.08 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Antwerp have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 25W 21D 29L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Standard Liege's form line: 23W 24D 28L from 75 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antwerp on 1.28 PPG, Standard Liege on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antwerp have posted 1.39 PPG from 38 outings (15W 8D 15L).
On the road, Standard Liege have gone 12W 11D 15L from 38 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Antwerp are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 0.83 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Current Season
Standard Liege
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 25W 21D 29L in their last 75 games (1.28 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 23W 24D 28L in their last 75 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Standard Liege away?
Antwerp's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.39 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Standard Liege been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Standard Liege in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antwerp and Standard Liege runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Antwerp won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Antwerp
2
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Standard Liege?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 5, Standard Liege have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-5 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Standard Liege?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 63%, Standard Liege 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Antwerp) and 37% (Standard Liege).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege in 32%; Standard Liege in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Standard Liege?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Antwerp's recent matches and 32% of Standard Liege's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Antwerp's recent games and 37% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and Standard Liege tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Standard Liege run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Antwerp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat Antwerp 0-5 at Bosuilstadion, Conference League Group - 36, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.10 xG and Standard Liege 1.08 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Antwerp fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Standard Liege outscored their 1.08 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Standard Liege attack 0.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 36% | Draw 29% | Standard Liege 35%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Standard Liege win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 47%, Standard Liege 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (75 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Standard Liege's trading profile (75 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.28 PPG, Standard Liege 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.