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Poisson model favours Genk (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charleroi face Genk.

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Full Analysis

Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus Genk in Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 36. Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 17:15 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Charleroi have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Charleroi's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Genk have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Genk are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Charleroi register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Genk in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Charleroi 1W, Genk 3W, 5D.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Charleroi — key trading statistics (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Genk — key trading statistics (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 55% versus Genk 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 45% | Genk 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.82 xG and Genk 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.995 / defence 1.148 | Genk attack 1.292 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Genk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Genk have an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Charleroi games / 60 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charleroi 37% | Draw 21% | Genk 42%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.70 | Draw 4.76 | Genk 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 70% | Genk 90% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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