Standard Liege 2-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Standard Liege at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Standard Liege vs OH Leuven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Conference League Group - 37 as Standard Liege welcome OH Leuven to Maurice Dufrasnestadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Standard Liege have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Standard Liege have posted 1W 4D 5L at Maurice Dufrasnestadion — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Maurice Dufrasnestadion this season.
OH Leuven — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
OH Leuven's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Standard Liege carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, OH Leuven have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Standard Liege.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 3–1 with Standard Liege winning.
It is worth noting that OH Leuven have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Standard Liege in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 49% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
OH Leuven in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 38% versus OH Leuven 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Standard Liege 37% | OH Leuven 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.14 xG and OH Leuven 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.804 / defence 0.917 | OH Leuven attack 0.929 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Data: 60 Standard Liege games / 60 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 36% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 35%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | OH Leuven 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
OH Leuven lead the H2H ledger, but Standard Liege carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liege at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Standard Liege offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 50% | OH Leuven 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 37 | Venue: Maurice Dufrasnestadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 36% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Standard Liege 1.14 / OH Leuven 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.804 / def 0.917 | OH Leuven attack 0.929 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.13
OH Leuven xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs OH Leuven kick off?
Standard Liege vs OH Leuven kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 8 May 2026 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs OH Leuven?
Standard Liege 2 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is Standard Liege vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What competition is Standard Liege vs OH Leuven part of?
Standard Liege vs OH Leuven is a Conference League Group - 37 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 36% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Standard Liege and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and OH Leuven?
Record (8 meetings): Standard Liege 1W | Draws 2 | OH Leuven 5W.
What form are Standard Liege and OH Leuven in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. OH Leuven (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Standard Liege's attack at 0.80x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
36%
2.79
29%
3.49
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.26
1.13
OH Leuven xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.13 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Standard Liege come into this having played 76 games, going 24W 24D 28L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, OH Leuven sit at 1.07 PPG from 76 outings (18W 27D 31L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.26 PPG, OH Leuven on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Standard Liege's home form reads 11W 13D 13L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, OH Leuven have taken 0.86 points per game from 37 outings (7W 11D 19L).
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 0.99 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Current Season
OH Leuven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 24W 24D 28L in their last 76 games (1.26 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 18W 27D 31L in their last 76 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or OH Leuven away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.24 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or OH Leuven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, OH Leuven in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Standard Liege have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Standard Liege's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
2
Draws
5
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, OH Leuven have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when OH Leuven 1-2 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and OH Leuven?
OH Leuven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 49% of their matches.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 46%, OH Leuven 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Standard Liege) and 40% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 35% of games; OH Leuven in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play OH Leuven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 46% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Standard Liege's recent games and 40% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 49% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Standard Liege edge out OH Leuven 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat OH Leuven 2-1 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Conference League Group - 37, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.14 xG and OH Leuven 1.13 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Standard Liege beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.80 / defence 0.92 against OH Leuven attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 36% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 35%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 37%, OH Leuven 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
OH Leuven's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.26 PPG, OH Leuven 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.