Anderlecht 1-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 38%, yet in-form Union St. Gilloise provide a compelling counter-argument — this Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Union St. Gilloise travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group - 35). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Anderlecht stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Anderlecht have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Anderlecht are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Union St. Gilloise have recorded 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Union St. Gilloise's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Union St. Gilloise are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Anderlecht's games and 60% of Union St. Gilloise's (from Anderlecht's last 10 home games and Union St. Gilloise's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Union St. Gilloise have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Anderlecht.
Scoring has been limited in the 7 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.1 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended Anderlecht 1–0 Union St. Gilloise — a Anderlecht win.
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Anderlecht trading profile (last 74 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (last 74 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 42% versus Union St. Gilloise 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 47% | Union St. Gilloise 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.21 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.164 / defence 0.903 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.940 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Union St. Gilloise bring a tight defence (rating 0.780, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Anderlecht's projected output down. Data: built from Anderlecht's last 60 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 60.
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 38% | Draw 28% | Union St. Gilloise 34%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.63 | Draw 3.55 | Union St. Gilloise 2.96. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union St. Gilloise (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Anderlecht 60% (last 10 home games) | Union St. Gilloise 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 35 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 38% | Draw 28% | Union St. Gilloise 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Anderlecht 1.21 / Union St. Gilloise 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.164 / def 0.903 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.940 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Union St. Gilloise xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise FAQs
What time does Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Anderlecht 1 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Championship Group - 35) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 38% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.16x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Anderlecht's last 60 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
38%
2.63
28%
3.55
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.33
1.12
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
10%
9.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.12 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 32W 15D 27L from 74 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 46W 21D 7L across 74 games — 2.15 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Anderlecht heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 18W 8D 10L from their last 36 home games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 16W 15D 5L across their last 36 away games, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Anderlecht are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.69 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Union St. Gilloise in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Anderlecht (Home) vs Union St. Gilloise (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Anderlecht
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise Form FAQs
What form are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 32W 15D 27L in their last 74 games (1.50 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 46W 21D 7L in their last 74 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.72 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise won Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Anderlecht.
Anderlecht's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Anderlecht
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Anderlecht have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 44%, Union St. Gilloise 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Anderlecht) and 36% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 42%; Union St. Gilloise in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 50% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Anderlecht's recent games and 36% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 64% of Union St. Gilloise's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Anderlecht 1-3 at Lotto Park, Championship Group - 35, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.21 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.12 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.16 / defence 0.90 against Union St. Gilloise attack 0.94 / defence 0.78, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 38% | Draw 28% | Union St. Gilloise 34%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 47%, Union St. Gilloise 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.