Union St. Gilloise 0-0 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face Gent.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise and Gent meet at Stade Joseph Marien in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 34. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade Joseph Marien, Union St. Gilloise have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien.
Gent have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gent's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Union St. Gilloise's 2.60 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Gent's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Union St. Gilloise have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 8 meetings, with Gent managing just 0 victories and 4 draws shared.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Union St. Gilloise and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Gent — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 45% versus Gent 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 44% | Gent 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.78 xG and Gent 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.186 / defence 0.637 | Gent attack 1.118 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.637 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Union St. Gilloise games / 60 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 23% | Gent 20%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Gent 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 50% | Gent 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 34 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Apr 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 23% | Gent 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.78 / Gent 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.186 / def 0.637 | Gent attack 1.118 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Gent xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Gent kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Gent kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Union St. Gilloise 0 - 0 Gent.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Gent is a Championship Group - 34 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 57% chance of winning, Gent a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
Record (8 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 4W | Draws 4 | Gent 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Gent in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Gent (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.19x the league average against Gent's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gent's attack (1.12x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.31
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.72
0.94
Gent xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
3%
29.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.94 for Gent, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 73 games, going 46W 20D 7L for 2.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Gent sit at 1.30 PPG from 73 outings (25W 20D 28L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Gent — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 29W 5D 2L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Gent have taken 1.17 points per game from 36 outings (10W 12D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.32 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Gent
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Gent in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 46W 20D 7L in their last 73 games (2.16 PPG), while Gent have gone 25W 20D 28L in their last 73 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Gent away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.56 PPG; Gent away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Gent in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-3 on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gent — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union St. Gilloise
6
Draws
0
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, Gent have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Gent 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 39%, Gent 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union St. Gilloise) and 56% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Gent in 31%; Gent in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 50% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 56% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Gent tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Gent in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union St. Gilloise's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Joseph Marien, Championship Group - 34, as Union St. Gilloise and Gent drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.78 xG and Gent 0.94 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Gent landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.19 / defence 0.64 against Gent attack 1.12 / defence 1.12, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 23% | Gent 20%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 44%, Gent 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gent's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.