St. Truiden 2-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Championship Group - 34 sees Anderlecht travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen to take on St. Truiden. The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 April 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
St. Truiden — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Anderlecht's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — St. Truiden at 1.30 PPG versus Anderlecht's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Anderlecht have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 8 encounters against St. Truiden's 0 victories.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Anderlecht winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Anderlecht have won 7 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Anderlecht in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 64% versus Anderlecht 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 59% | Anderlecht 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.73 xG and Anderlecht 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.060 / defence 1.075 | Anderlecht attack 0.973 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Anderlecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing St. Truiden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 St. Truiden games / 60 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 46% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 31%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Anderlecht 3.23. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 50% | Anderlecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 34 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 46% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG St. Truiden 1.73 / Anderlecht 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.060 / def 1.075 | Anderlecht attack 0.973 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Anderlecht xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Anderlecht kick off?
St. Truiden vs Anderlecht kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 23 April 2026 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
St. Truiden 2 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht part of?
St. Truiden vs Anderlecht is a Championship Group - 34 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 46% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both St. Truiden and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
Record (8 meetings): St. Truiden 0W | Draws 1 | Anderlecht 7W.
What form are St. Truiden and Anderlecht in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St. Truiden's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
46%
2.19
23%
4.26
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
3.11
1.38
Anderlecht xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
11%
8.73
5%
18.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.38 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden come into this having played 69 games, going 28W 15D 26L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Anderlecht sit at 1.46 PPG from 69 outings (29W 14D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.43 PPG, Anderlecht on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
St. Truiden's home form reads 17W 8D 9L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Anderlecht have taken 1.24 points per game from 34 outings (12W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.52 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Anderlecht in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 28W 15D 26L in their last 69 games (1.43 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 29W 14D 26L in their last 69 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Anderlecht away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.74 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.24 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Anderlecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
1
Draws
8
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 1, Anderlecht have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Anderlecht 3-1 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 65%, Anderlecht 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (St. Truiden) and 38% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 38% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of St. Truiden's recent games and 38% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Anderlecht tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Anderlecht 2-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Championship Group - 34, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.73 xG and Anderlecht 1.38 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Anderlecht landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.06 / defence 1.07 against Anderlecht attack 0.97 / defence 1.22, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 46% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 31%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 59%, Anderlecht 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Anderlecht's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.43 PPG, Anderlecht 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.