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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as St. Truiden face Union St. Gilloise.

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Analysis

Union St. Gilloise make the trip to Daio Wasabi Stayen to face St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 36. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form

St. Truiden (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Daio Wasabi Stayen this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen than their overall form suggests.

Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Union St. Gilloise hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.

It is worth noting that Union St. Gilloise have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

St. Truiden — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 63% versus Union St. Gilloise 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 59% | Union St. Gilloise 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.11 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.058 / defence 1.072 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.942 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 St. Truiden games / 60 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St. Truiden 31% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 42%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Union St. Gilloise 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 50% | Union St. Gilloise 60%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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