Anderlecht 4-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Anderlecht at 67% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Anderlecht vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees St. Truiden travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 February 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Anderlecht — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 7W 3D 0L at Lotto Park — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Anderlecht have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Anderlecht have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while St. Truiden have managed just 0 wins.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Anderlecht winning.
The historical record gives Anderlecht a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Anderlecht trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
St. Truiden trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 60% versus St. Truiden 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 53% | St. Truiden 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 2.36 xG and St. Truiden 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.183 / defence 0.854 | St. Truiden attack 0.975 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.235. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Anderlecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Anderlecht games / 59 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 67% | Draw 19% | St. Truiden 15%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | St. Truiden 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Anderlecht (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Anderlecht 80% | St. Truiden 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 67% | Draw 19% | St. Truiden 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 58% | xG Anderlecht 2.36 / St. Truiden 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.183 / def 0.854 | St. Truiden attack 0.975 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.03
St. Truiden xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs St. Truiden kick off?
Anderlecht vs St. Truiden kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Anderlecht 4 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Anderlecht vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs St. Truiden part of?
Anderlecht vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 67% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Anderlecht and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and St. Truiden?
Record (3 meetings): Anderlecht 3W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are Anderlecht and St. Truiden in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.18x the league average against St. Truiden's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.4%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
67%
1.50
19%
5.35
15%
6.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.39
1.03
St. Truiden xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.35
19%
Draw
6.83
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
9%
10.58
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
1%
72.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.03 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 27W 16D 15L from 58 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 19W 18D 21L across 58 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Anderlecht on 1.67 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 15W 7D 7L from 29 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 7W 11D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Anderlecht are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.16 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 27W 16D 15L in their last 58 games (1.67 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 19W 18D 21L in their last 58 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or St. Truiden away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.79 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Anderlecht and St. Truiden runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Anderlecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Anderlecht's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Anderlecht
1
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 8, St. Truiden have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Anderlecht 3-1 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and St. Truiden?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 62%, St. Truiden 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Anderlecht) and 48% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Anderlecht's games and 55% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Anderlecht's recent games and 48% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Anderlecht run riot with a 4-1 hammering of St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat St. Truiden 4-1 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 2.36 xG and St. Truiden 1.03 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Anderlecht beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.18 / defence 0.85 against St. Truiden attack 0.97 / defence 1.27, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 67% | Draw 19% | St. Truiden 15%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 53%, St. Truiden 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.67 PPG, St. Truiden 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. St. Truiden (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.