Charleroi 1-3 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Anderlecht (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Charleroi face Anderlecht.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Charleroi and Anderlecht meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Charleroi have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Charleroi's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Charleroi are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Anderlecht's record over their last 10 games: 5W 5D 0L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Anderlecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Anderlecht are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Charleroi's last 10 home games and Anderlecht's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Charleroi's games and 90% of Anderlecht's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Anderlecht have the stronger record — 4 wins to Charleroi's 1, with 0 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Charleroi 1–2 Anderlecht — a Anderlecht win.

Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading

Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Anderlecht half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 58% versus Anderlecht 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 54% | Anderlecht 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Charleroi surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Anderlecht have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.42 xG and Anderlecht 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.002 / defence 1.250 | Anderlecht attack 1.256 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.222. Anderlecht have an above-average attack rating of 1.256, which lifts their away xG to 1.92. Charleroi's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Anderlecht's projected output up. Data: built from Charleroi's last 57 games and Anderlecht's last 57.

Result probabilities: Charleroi 28% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 49%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.56 | Draw 4.38 | Anderlecht 2.04. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.42 / 1.92) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Charleroi's last 10 home games and Anderlecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charleroi 80% (last 10 home games) | Anderlecht 90% (last 10 away games).

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