Charleroi 1-3 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Anderlecht (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charleroi face Anderlecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Anderlecht meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 February 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
Anderlecht's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Anderlecht are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Charleroi register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Anderlecht in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Anderlecht hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Anderlecht winning.
It is worth noting that Anderlecht have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Anderlecht half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 58% versus Anderlecht 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 54% | Anderlecht 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.42 xG and Anderlecht 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.002 / defence 1.250 | Anderlecht attack 1.256 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.222. Anderlecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — the away xG of 1.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Charleroi games / 57 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 28% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 49%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Anderlecht 2.04. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 80% | Anderlecht 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 28% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Charleroi 1.42 / Anderlecht 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.002 / def 1.250 | Anderlecht attack 1.256 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Anderlecht xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Anderlecht kick off?
Charleroi vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Charleroi 1 - 3 Anderlecht.
Where is Charleroi vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Anderlecht part of?
Charleroi vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 28% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Charleroi and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
Record (5 meetings): Charleroi 1W | Draws 0 | Anderlecht 4W.
What form are Charleroi and Anderlecht in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.00x the league average against Anderlecht's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (1.26x) against Charleroi's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.92.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
28%
3.56
23%
4.38
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.33
1.92
Anderlecht xG
3.56
28%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
15%
6.81
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
4%
24.24
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.92 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 20W 12D 25L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht's form line: 26W 16D 15L from 57 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Charleroi against 1.65 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.57 PPG from 28 outings (13W 5D 10L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 11W 9D 8L from 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.65 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 20W 12D 25L in their last 57 games (1.26 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 26W 16D 15L in their last 57 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Anderlecht away?
Charleroi's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.57 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 4-0 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
1
Draws
6
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Anderlecht have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Anderlecht 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 68%, Anderlecht 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Charleroi) and 46% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Anderlecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Charleroi's games and 57% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Charleroi's recent games and 46% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Anderlecht cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Charleroi 1-3 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.42 xG and Anderlecht 1.92 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Anderlecht outscored their 1.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.00 / defence 1.25 against Anderlecht attack 1.26 / defence 0.87, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 28% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 49%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 54%, Anderlecht 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Anderlecht's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.26 PPG, Anderlecht 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.