Kortrijk 1-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kortrijk face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Kortrijk welcome Union St. Gilloise to Guldensporenstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Union St. Gilloise — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Union St. Gilloise have the better historical record — 5 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Kortrijk.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 0–3 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union St. Gilloise have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Kortrijk trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 48% versus Union St. Gilloise 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 54% | Union St. Gilloise 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 0.76 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.646 / defence 1.056 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.289 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.222. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.646 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.748 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Kortrijk games / 59 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 16% | Draw 25% | Union St. Gilloise 59%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 6.25 | Draw 4.00 | Union St. Gilloise 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kortrijk 40% | Union St. Gilloise 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 16% | Draw 25% | Union St. Gilloise 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Kortrijk 0.76 / Union St. Gilloise 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.646 / def 1.056 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.289 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Union St. Gilloise xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Kortrijk 1 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 16% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 59% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (5 meetings): Kortrijk 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 5W.
What form are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kortrijk's attack rating (0.65) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
16%
6.07
25%
4.01
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.42
1.66
Union St. Gilloise xG
6.07
16%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
3%
32.01
27%
3.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 14.7 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.66 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 12W 13D 34L from 59 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 40W 12D 7L across 59 games — 2.24 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 1.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 7W 8D 14L from 29 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 19W 8D 2L across 29 trips, a 2.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kortrijk are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.10 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise in 69%.
Last 59 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 12W 13D 34L in their last 59 games (0.83 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 40W 12D 7L in their last 59 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.00 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2023, when Union St. Gilloise won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kortrijk's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Kortrijk
0
Draws
8
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Kortrijk 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kortrijk see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 45%, Union St. Gilloise 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Kortrijk) and 62% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Kortrijk's games and 76% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Kortrijk's matches and 62% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Kortrijk 1-3 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 0.76 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.66 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.65 / defence 1.06 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.29 / defence 0.75, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 16% | Draw 25% | Union St. Gilloise 59%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 54%, Union St. Gilloise 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Kortrijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.