St. Truiden 1-0 KVC Westerlo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 46%, yet in-form KVC Westerlo provide a compelling counter-argument — this St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo meet at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
St. Truiden's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, St. Truiden have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
KVC Westerlo have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KVC Westerlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, KVC Westerlo have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
KVC Westerlo arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, KVC Westerlo in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — St. Truiden lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
KVC Westerlo — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 50% versus KVC Westerlo 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 43% | KVC Westerlo 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.62 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.959 / defence 0.863 | KVC Westerlo attack 1.158 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.229. Data: 60 St. Truiden games / 60 KVC Westerlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 46% | Draw 25% | KVC Westerlo 29%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | KVC Westerlo 3.45. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form KVC Westerlo (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 60% | KVC Westerlo 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 46% | Draw 25% | KVC Westerlo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG St. Truiden 1.62 / KVC Westerlo 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.959 / def 0.863 | KVC Westerlo attack 1.158 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.23
KVC Westerlo xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo kick off?
St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo?
St. Truiden 1 - 0 KVC Westerlo.
Where is St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo part of?
St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 46% chance of winning, KVC Westerlo a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo?
Record (3 meetings): St. Truiden 1W | Draws 1 | KVC Westerlo 1W.
What form are St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. KVC Westerlo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against KVC Westerlo's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — KVC Westerlo's attack (1.16x) against St. Truiden's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
46%
2.16
25%
3.97
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.85
1.23
KVC Westerlo xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
6%
17.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.23 for KVC Westerlo, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
St. Truiden come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 19D 22L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, KVC Westerlo sit at 1.30 PPG from 60 outings (20W 18D 22L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for KVC Westerlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for St. Truiden against 1.30 for KVC Westerlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
St. Truiden's home form reads 12W 8D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, KVC Westerlo have taken 1.23 points per game from 30 outings (8W 13D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
St. Truiden are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; KVC Westerlo are on 1.67 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KVC Westerlo in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
KVC Westerlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 19W 19D 22L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while KVC Westerlo have gone 20W 18D 22L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or KVC Westerlo away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.47 PPG; KVC Westerlo away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 0-4 on 6 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KVC Westerlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
St. Truiden
2
Draws
2
KVC Westerlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 6, KVC Westerlo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when KVC Westerlo 0-4 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 43%, KVC Westerlo 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (St. Truiden) and 53% (KVC Westerlo).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / KVC Westerlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play KVC Westerlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 63% of KVC Westerlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of St. Truiden's recent games and 53% of KVC Westerlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, KVC Westerlo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out KVC Westerlo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat KVC Westerlo 1-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.62 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.23 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KVC Westerlo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.96 / defence 0.86 against KVC Westerlo attack 1.16 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 46% | Draw 25% | KVC Westerlo 29%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 43%, KVC Westerlo 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.27 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.