Zulte Waregem 0-1 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Elindus Arena plays host to Zulte Waregem versus SK Beveren in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Zulte Waregem (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Elindus Arena, Zulte Waregem have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Elindus Arena this season.
SK Beveren have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 2.00 for SK Beveren. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zulte Waregem lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 3–0 with Zulte Waregem winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Zulte Waregem half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 67% versus SK Beveren 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 63% | SK Beveren 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.04 xG and SK Beveren 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.891 / defence 1.171 | SK Beveren attack 1.040 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.442. Data: 19 Zulte Waregem games / 41 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 22% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 54%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | SK Beveren 1.85. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Zulte Waregem 70% | SK Beveren 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 22% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.04 / SK Beveren 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.891 / def 1.171 | SK Beveren attack 1.040 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.76
SK Beveren xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren?
Zulte Waregem 0 - 1 SK Beveren.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren part of?
Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 22% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Zulte Waregem and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and SK Beveren?
Record (1 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 0 | SK Beveren 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and SK Beveren in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. SK Beveren (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (0.89) and SK Beveren's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SK Beveren's attack (1.04x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 19/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
22%
4.49
24%
4.26
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.79
1.76
SK Beveren xG
4.49
22%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
17%
5.79
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
4%
26.00
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.76 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 16W 12D 23L from 51 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren, meanwhile, have gone 28W 13D 10L across 51 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zulte Waregem heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 5W 6D 14L from 25 games — 0.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SK Beveren's away record stands at 11W 9D 5L across 25 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.04 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 16W 12D 23L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 28W 13D 10L in their last 51 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 0.84 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Zulte Waregem or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zulte Waregem won 4-0 on 7 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SK Beveren — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
2
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and SK Beveren?
From 4 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 2, SK Beveren have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when SK Beveren 3-2 Zulte Waregem.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 72%, SK Beveren 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Zulte Waregem and 64% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Zulte Waregem's games and 48% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 64% of SK Beveren's.
Do Zulte Waregem and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out Zulte Waregem 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Zulte Waregem 0-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.04 xG and SK Beveren 1.76 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zulte Waregem fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.89 / defence 1.17 against SK Beveren attack 1.04 / defence 0.99, drawn from 19/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 22% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 54%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 63%, SK Beveren 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
SK Beveren's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.