Liège 0-2 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Liège vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Liège and Zulte Waregem meet at Stade Rue de la Tonne in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 January 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Liège's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Liège, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liège's home record at Stade Rue de la Tonne: 6W 0D 3L from 9 Challenger Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game.
Zulte Waregem have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Liège, 1.70 for Zulte Waregem — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Liège, 1 for Zulte Waregem and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Zulte Waregem winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Liège — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liège 47% versus Zulte Waregem 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liège 53% | Zulte Waregem 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liège 1.23 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liège attack 0.966 / defence 1.001 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.205 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.444. Zulte Waregem have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Liège games / 18 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liège 27% | Draw 24% | Zulte Waregem 49%. Fair-value odds: Liège 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Zulte Waregem 2.04. Zulte Waregem hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Liège 44% | Zulte Waregem 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liège vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Rue de la Tonne • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liège 27% | Draw 24% | Zulte Waregem 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Liège 1.23 / Zulte Waregem 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Liège attack 0.966 / def 1.001 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.205 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Liège xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Zulte Waregem xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liège vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Liège vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Stade Rue de la Tonne.
What was the final score in Liège vs Zulte Waregem?
Liège 0 - 2 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Liège vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Stade Rue de la Tonne.
What competition is Liège vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Liège vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Liège vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Liège a 27% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liège vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Liège and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Liège vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liège and Zulte Waregem?
Record (1 meetings): Liège 0W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 1W.
What form are Liège and Zulte Waregem in?
Liège (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Liège's attack at 0.97x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (1.21x) against Liège's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
27%
3.70
24%
4.24
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Liège xG
Total xG
2.97
1.74
Zulte Waregem xG
3.70
27%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
18%
5.70
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
5%
21.11
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liège vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Liège and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Liège and 1.74 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Liège vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, Liège have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 9W 1D 7L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Liège is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 10W 3D 4L from 17 games, 1.94 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Liège against 1.94 for Zulte Waregem. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Liège have posted 2.00 PPG from 9 outings (6W 0D 3L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 7W 1D 1L from 9 away games — 2.44 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.94 PPG overall record — Zulte Waregem travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Liège are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.94 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liège
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liège and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Liège have gone 9W 1D 7L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 10W 3D 4L in their last 17 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liège at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liège at home: 2.00 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 2.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liège have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Liège
1
Draws
3
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liège and Zulte Waregem?
From 4 meetings on record, Liège have won 0, Zulte Waregem have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Liège and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Liège 1-1 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Liège and Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Liège are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liège 44%, Zulte Waregem 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Liège and 78% for Zulte Waregem. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Liège keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Zulte Waregem in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liège home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liège play Zulte Waregem?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Liège's recent matches and 56% of Zulte Waregem's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Liège vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Liège's matches and 78% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Liège and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Liège have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Liège.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Liège 0-2 at Stade Rue de la Tonne, Regular Season - 19, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.23 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.74 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Liège fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.21 / defence 1.04, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liège 27% | Draw 24% | Zulte Waregem 49%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 53%, Zulte Waregem 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liège's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Liège 1.65 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Liège (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.