Patro Eisden 3-1 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Patro Eisden welcome Francs Borains to Patrostadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Patro Eisden — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Patro Eisden's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 3L across 9 games at Patrostadion this term (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Francs Borains stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's away record: 2W 0D 7L from 9 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Patro Eisden carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Patro Eisden, 0 for Francs Borains and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Patro Eisden in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Francs Borains in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 44% versus Francs Borains 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 50% | Francs Borains 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.71 xG and Francs Borains 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.147 / defence 1.043 | Francs Borains attack 0.844 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.444. Francs Borains bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Patro Eisden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Patro Eisden games / 18 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 48% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 29%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Francs Borains 3.45. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Patro Eisden 56% | Francs Borains 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 48% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Patro Eisden 1.71 / Francs Borains 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.147 / def 1.043 | Francs Borains attack 0.844 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Francs Borains xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Patro Eisden 3 - 1 Francs Borains.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains part of?
Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 48% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Patro Eisden and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Francs Borains?
Record (1 meetings): Patro Eisden 0W | Draws 1 | Francs Borains 0W.
What form are Patro Eisden and Francs Borains in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Patro Eisden's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Francs Borains's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Francs Borains's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
48%
2.10
24%
4.20
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.98
1.27
Francs Borains xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
5%
19.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.27 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Patro Eisden come into this having played 18 games, going 8W 5D 5L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Francs Borains sit at 1.06 PPG from 18 outings (6W 1D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Patro Eisden carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Francs Borains — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Patro Eisden's home form reads 4W 1D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Francs Borains have taken 0.38 points per game from 8 outings (1W 0D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Francs Borains's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.11 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 8W 5D 5L in their last 18 games (1.61 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 6W 1D 11L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or Francs Borains away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.62 PPG; Francs Borains away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or Francs Borains been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Francs Borains in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2026, when Patro Eisden won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Patro Eisden's record when hosting Francs Borains specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Francs Borains?
From 6 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 4, Francs Borains have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Patro Eisden 4-0 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and Francs Borains?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 50%, Francs Borains 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Patro Eisden) and 50% (Francs Borains). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden have failed to score in 38% of games; Francs Borains in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play Francs Borains?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Patro Eisden's recent matches and 25% of Francs Borains's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Patro Eisden's matches and 50% of Francs Borains's.
Do Patro Eisden and Francs Borains tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Patro Eisden cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat Francs Borains 3-1 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.71 xG and Francs Borains 1.27 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.15 / defence 1.04 against Francs Borains attack 0.84 / defence 1.28, drawn from 19/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 48% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 29%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 50%, Francs Borains 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Francs Borains's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Francs Borains (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.