SK Beveren 3-1 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours SK Beveren (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SK Beveren face K. Lierse S.K..
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees K. Lierse S.K. travel to Freethielstadion to take on SK Beveren. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SK Beveren have posted 5W 2D 3L at Freethielstadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, K. Lierse S.K. stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SK Beveren register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of SK Beveren: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for K. Lierse S.K., with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SK Beveren and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
K. Lierse S.K. trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 52% versus K. Lierse S.K. 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SK Beveren 65% | K. Lierse S.K. 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.75 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.047 / defence 1.028 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.908 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.451. K. Lierse S.K. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing SK Beveren's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 SK Beveren games / 42 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 47% | Draw 23% | K. Lierse S.K. 30%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | K. Lierse S.K. 3.33. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | K. Lierse S.K. 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 47% | Draw 23% | K. Lierse S.K. 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG SK Beveren 1.75 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.047 / def 1.028 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.908 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.35
K. Lierse S.K. xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
SK Beveren 3 - 1 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 47% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K.?
Record (5 meetings): SK Beveren 4W | Draws 1 | K. Lierse S.K. 0W.
What form are SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SK Beveren's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against K. Lierse S.K.'s defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, K. Lierse S.K.'s attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
47%
2.13
23%
4.29
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
3.11
1.35
K. Lierse S.K. xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
5%
19.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.35 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 29W 13D 10L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
K. Lierse S.K.'s form line: 19W 8D 25L from 52 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against K. Lierse S.K..
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.20 PPG from 25 outings (17W 4D 4L).
On the road, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 9W 6D 10L from 25 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.54 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. in 63%.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 29W 13D 10L in their last 52 games (1.92 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 19W 8D 25L in their last 52 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.20 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 1.32 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or K. Lierse S.K. been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, K. Lierse S.K. in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SK Beveren's record when hosting K. Lierse S.K. specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
SK Beveren
1
Draws
0
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 10 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 9, K. Lierse S.K. have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when SK Beveren 1-0 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K.?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 60%, K. Lierse S.K. 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for SK Beveren and 68% for K. Lierse S.K.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; K. Lierse S.K. in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play K. Lierse S.K.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of SK Beveren's games and 56% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of SK Beveren's matches and 68% of K. Lierse S.K.'s.
Do SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over K. Lierse S.K..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat K. Lierse S.K. 3-1 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.75 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.35 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.91 / defence 1.36, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 47% | Draw 23% | K. Lierse S.K. 30%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 65%, K. Lierse S.K. 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.