SK Beveren 3-2 RWDM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs RWDM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Freethiel Stadion plays host to SK Beveren versus RWDM in Challenger Pro League (matchday 29). Kick-off: Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SK Beveren have collected 3.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SK Beveren's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RWDM's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
RWDM's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward SK Beveren. A 1.80 PPG lead over RWDM (3.00 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, SK Beveren edge it 4 wins to 3, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended SK Beveren 2–0 RWDM — a SK Beveren win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
RWDM half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 49% versus RWDM 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 54% | RWDM 51%). Note also that RWDM surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while SK Beveren recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.40 xG and RWDM 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.180 / defence 0.632 | RWDM attack 0.947 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.350. SK Beveren have a tight defence (rating 0.632), which is pulling RWDM's projected output down. Data: built from SK Beveren's last 55 games and RWDM's last 56.
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 51% | Draw 27% | RWDM 22%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.97 | Draw 3.64 | RWDM 4.61. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SK Beveren 60% (last 10 home games) | RWDM 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs RWDM | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 29 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 51% | Draw 27% | RWDM 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG SK Beveren 1.40 / RWDM 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.180 / def 0.632 | RWDM attack 0.947 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.81
RWDM xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SK Beveren vs RWDM FAQs
What time does SK Beveren vs RWDM kick off?
SK Beveren vs RWDM kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at Freethiel Stadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs RWDM?
SK Beveren 3 - 2 RWDM.
Where is SK Beveren vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs RWDM part of?
SK Beveren vs RWDM is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 29) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 51% chance of winning, RWDM a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both SK Beveren and RWDM will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will SK Beveren vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SK Beveren's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against RWDM's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — RWDM's attack (0.95x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from SK Beveren's last 55 games and RWDM's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.64
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.21
0.81
RWDM xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
5%
18.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SK Beveren vs RWDM Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.81 for RWDM, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs RWDM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SK Beveren come into this having played 57 games, going 37W 12D 8L for 2.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, RWDM sit at 1.65 PPG from 57 outings (27W 13D 17L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of RWDM — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SK Beveren's home form reads 19W 6D 3L across their last 28 home games, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, RWDM have taken 1.57 points per game from their last 28 away games (12W 8D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SK Beveren are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.56 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; RWDM in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
RWDM
Blended
SK Beveren (Home) vs RWDM (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SK Beveren
Blended
RWDM
Blended
❓ SK Beveren vs RWDM Form FAQs
What form are SK Beveren and RWDM in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 37W 12D 8L in their last 57 games (2.16 PPG), while RWDM have gone 27W 13D 17L in their last 57 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or RWDM away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.25 PPG; RWDM away: 1.57 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or RWDM been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, RWDM in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 11 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SK Beveren have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against RWDM — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SK Beveren
2
Draws
3
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ SK Beveren vs RWDM H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and RWDM?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SK Beveren have won 5, RWDM have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and RWDM last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 March 2026: SK Beveren 3-2 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and RWDM?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 46%, RWDM 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SK Beveren) and 43% (RWDM).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; RWDM in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SK Beveren vs RWDM Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SK Beveren and RWDM matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 46% of RWDM's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SK Beveren and RWDM matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SK Beveren's recent games and 43% of RWDM's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and RWDM matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 61% of RWDM's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out RWDM 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat RWDM 3-2 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.40 xG and RWDM 0.81 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RWDM outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.18 / defence 0.63 against RWDM attack 0.95 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 51% | Draw 27% | RWDM 22%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 54%, RWDM 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
RWDM's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.65. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RWDM (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.