AS Eupen 0-1 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Eupen at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Eupen vs K. Lierse S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Eupen and K. Lierse S.K. meet at Kehrwegstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
AS Eupen (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen's home record at Kehrwegstadion: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
K. Lierse S.K. have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward AS Eupen. A 0.50 PPG lead over K. Lierse S.K. (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — AS Eupen have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, K. Lierse S.K. in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to K. Lierse S.K., who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 2–3 with K. Lierse S.K. winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. K. Lierse S.K. have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
AS Eupen half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
K. Lierse S.K. half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 56% versus K. Lierse S.K. 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 59% | K. Lierse S.K. 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.62 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 1.112 / defence 0.814 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.030 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.360. Data: 54 AS Eupen games / 55 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 48% | Draw 25% | K. Lierse S.K. 27%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | K. Lierse S.K. 3.70. AS Eupen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
K. Lierse S.K. lead the H2H ledger, but AS Eupen carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Eupen at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Eupen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 80% | K. Lierse S.K. 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 48% | Draw 25% | K. Lierse S.K. 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG AS Eupen 1.62 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 1.112 / def 0.814 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.030 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: AS Eupen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.14
K. Lierse S.K. xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
AS Eupen vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at Kehrwegstadion.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs K. Lierse S.K.?
AS Eupen 0 - 1 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is AS Eupen vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
AS Eupen vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 48% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Eupen the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both AS Eupen and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and K. Lierse S.K.?
Record (3 meetings): AS Eupen 0W | Draws 0 | K. Lierse S.K. 3W.
What form are AS Eupen and K. Lierse S.K. in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AS Eupen's attack at 1.11x the league average against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — K. Lierse S.K.'s attack (1.03x) against AS Eupen's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Eupen Win
48%
2.06
25%
4.05
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.76
1.14
K. Lierse S.K. xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.45
5%
18.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.14 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AS Eupen's recent record stands at 18W 15D 21L from 54 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
K. Lierse S.K., meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 23L across 54 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for AS Eupen against 1.24 for K. Lierse S.K.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AS Eupen have managed 11W 6D 9L from 26 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
K. Lierse S.K.'s away record stands at 6W 6D 14L across 26 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Eupen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Eupen are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.28 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 18W 15D 21L in their last 54 games (1.28 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 18W 13D 23L in their last 54 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
AS Eupen's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 1.50 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
K. Lierse S.K. have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: K. Lierse S.K. won 3-0 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Eupen have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against K. Lierse S.K. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
AS Eupen
0
Draws
4
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 4 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 0, K. Lierse S.K. have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when AS Eupen 0-1 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and K. Lierse S.K.?
K. Lierse S.K. have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 62%, K. Lierse S.K. 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (AS Eupen) and 46% (K. Lierse S.K.).
On the defensive side: K. Lierse S.K. in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play K. Lierse S.K.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of AS Eupen's games and 54% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Eupen vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of AS Eupen's recent games and 46% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Eupen and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as K. Lierse S.K. defy the odds to beat AS Eupen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. beat AS Eupen 0-1 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.62 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.14 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AS Eupen fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 1.11 / defence 0.81 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.03 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 48% | Draw 25% | K. Lierse S.K. 27%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual K. Lierse S.K. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 59%, K. Lierse S.K. 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Eupen 1.28 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the K. Lierse S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.