Beerschot VA 4-2 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RSC Anderlecht II at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Beerschot VA welcome RSC Anderlecht II to Olympisch Stadion. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beerschot VA — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Olympisch Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RSC Anderlecht II stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RSC Anderlecht II's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Beerschot VA) versus 1.50 (RSC Anderlecht II). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Beerschot VA have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while RSC Anderlecht II have managed just 1 wins.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Beerschot VA winning.
The historical record gives Beerschot VA a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Beerschot VA trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
RSC Anderlecht II trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 54% versus RSC Anderlecht II 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 51% | RSC Anderlecht II 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.22 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.859 / defence 0.842 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.166 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.360. Data: 27 Beerschot VA games / 55 RSC Anderlecht II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 34% | Draw 27% | RSC Anderlecht II 39%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | RSC Anderlecht II 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RSC Anderlecht II as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RSC Anderlecht II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Beerschot VA 60% | RSC Anderlecht II 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 34% | Draw 27% | RSC Anderlecht II 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Beerschot VA 1.22 / RSC Anderlecht II 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.859 / def 0.842 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.166 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: RSC Anderlecht II (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.34
RSC Anderlecht II xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Beerschot VA 4 - 2 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 34% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RSC Anderlecht II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II?
Record (7 meetings): Beerschot VA 4W | Draws 2 | RSC Anderlecht II 1W.
What form are Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Beerschot VA's attack at 0.86x the league average against RSC Anderlecht II's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RSC Anderlecht II's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RSC Anderlecht II Win
34%
2.95
27%
3.76
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.56
1.34
RSC Anderlecht II xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
9%
11.21
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.34 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Beerschot VA have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 20W 14D 21L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RSC Anderlecht II's form line: 11W 18D 26L from 55 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for RSC Anderlecht II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beerschot VA are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RSC Anderlecht II.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beerschot VA have posted 1.59 PPG from 27 outings (11W 10D 6L).
On the road, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 5W 8D 14L from 27 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.42 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 20W 14D 21L in their last 55 games (1.35 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 11W 18D 26L in their last 55 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.59 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Beerschot VA have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting RSC Anderlecht II specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Beerschot VA
2
Draws
1
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II?
From 9 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 6, RSC Anderlecht II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when RSC Anderlecht II 0-1 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 56%, RSC Anderlecht II 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Beerschot VA) and 59% (RSC Anderlecht II).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; RSC Anderlecht II in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play RSC Anderlecht II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Beerschot VA's games and 59% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 59% of RSC Anderlecht II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, RSC Anderlecht II in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beerschot VA cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over RSC Anderlecht II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat RSC Anderlecht II 4-2 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.22 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.34 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Beerschot VA beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.86 / defence 0.84 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.17 / defence 1.06, drawn from 27/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 34% | Draw 27% | RSC Anderlecht II 39%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Beerschot VA win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 51%, RSC Anderlecht II 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.