SK Beveren 2-0 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Lommel United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Beveren host Lommel United at Freethiel Stadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SK Beveren stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, SK Beveren have posted 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lommel United — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lommel United's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, SK Beveren have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 2.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of SK Beveren's games and 60% of Lommel United's (from SK Beveren's last 10 home games and Lommel United's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for SK Beveren, 2 for Lommel United and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2025, ended SK Beveren 2–2 Lommel United — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Lommel United trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 49% versus Lommel United 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 55% | Lommel United 57%). Note also that Lommel United surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while SK Beveren recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.61 xG and Lommel United 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.157 / defence 0.765 | Lommel United attack 1.155 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.335. SK Beveren have a tight defence (rating 0.765), which is pulling Lommel United's projected output down. Data: built from SK Beveren's last 50 games and Lommel United's last 51.
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 47% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 28%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.11 | Draw 4.05 | Lommel United 3.57. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SK Beveren's last 10 home games and Lommel United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SK Beveren 60% (last 10 home games) | Lommel United 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 47% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG SK Beveren 1.61 / Lommel United 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.157 / def 0.765 | Lommel United attack 1.155 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Lommel United xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SK Beveren vs Lommel United FAQs
What time does SK Beveren vs Lommel United kick off?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Freethiel Stadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
SK Beveren 2 - 0 Lommel United.
Where is SK Beveren vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Lommel United part of?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 47% chance of winning, Lommel United a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SK Beveren and Lommel United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SK Beveren vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.16) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SK Beveren's last 50 games and Lommel United's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
47%
2.11
25%
4.05
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.79
1.18
Lommel United xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
6%
17.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SK Beveren vs Lommel United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.18 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 31W 12D 8L from 51 games, a 2.06 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 20L across 51 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lommel United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 16W 6D 3L from their last 25 home games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lommel United's away record stands at 12W 5D 8L across their last 25 away games, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.51 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United in 61%.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
SK Beveren (Home) vs Lommel United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SK Beveren
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ SK Beveren vs Lommel United Form FAQs
What form are SK Beveren and Lommel United in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 31W 12D 8L in their last 51 games (2.06 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 19W 12D 20L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Lommel United away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.16 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.64 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Lommel United in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. They cover more than one competition — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
3
Draws
3
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ SK Beveren vs Lommel United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SK Beveren have won 4, Lommel United have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Lommel United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: SK Beveren 1-3 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 48%, Lommel United 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SK Beveren) and 60% (Lommel United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SK Beveren vs Lommel United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SK Beveren and Lommel United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 52% of Lommel United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SK Beveren and Lommel United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of SK Beveren's matches and 60% of Lommel United's.
Do SK Beveren and Lommel United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 84% of Lommel United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lommel United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Lommel United 2-0 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.61 xG and Lommel United 1.18 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lommel United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.16 / defence 0.77 against Lommel United attack 1.16 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 47% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 28%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 55%, Lommel United 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lommel United's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. SK Beveren (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.