Lommel United 1-1 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lommel United at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Patro Eisden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Patro Eisden travel to Soevereinstadion to take on Lommel United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lommel United stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's home record at Soevereinstadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Patro Eisden have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Patro Eisden have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Lommel United) versus 2.00 (Patro Eisden). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Patro Eisden, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Lommel United.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Lommel United winning.
It is worth noting that Patro Eisden have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Lommel United in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Patro Eisden in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 60% versus Patro Eisden 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 58% | Patro Eisden 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.63 xG and Patro Eisden 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 1.367 / defence 1.133 | Patro Eisden attack 1.067 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.318. Lommel United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.367 — their λ of 1.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Lommel United games / 50 Patro Eisden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 39% | Draw 23% | Patro Eisden 38%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Patro Eisden 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 70% | Patro Eisden 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 39% | Draw 23% | Patro Eisden 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Lommel United 1.63 / Patro Eisden 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 1.367 / def 1.133 | Patro Eisden attack 1.067 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Patro Eisden xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Lommel United vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Soevereinstadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Patro Eisden?
Lommel United 1 - 1 Patro Eisden.
Where is Lommel United vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Patro Eisden part of?
Lommel United vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 39% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Lommel United and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Patro Eisden?
Record (5 meetings): Lommel United 1W | Draws 0 | Patro Eisden 4W.
What form are Lommel United and Patro Eisden in?
Lommel United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Patro Eisden (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lommel United's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Patro Eisden's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Patro Eisden's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
39%
2.56
23%
4.28
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Lommel United xG
Total xG
3.22
1.59
Patro Eisden xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
8%
12.58
7%
13.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.59 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lommel United come into this having played 50 games, going 19W 11D 20L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Patro Eisden sit at 1.76 PPG from 50 outings (25W 13D 12L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lommel United on 1.36 PPG, Patro Eisden on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lommel United's home form reads 7W 6D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Patro Eisden have taken 1.67 points per game from 24 outings (11W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.54 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 19W 11D 20L in their last 50 games (1.36 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 25W 13D 12L in their last 50 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Patro Eisden away?
Patro Eisden's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.12 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Lommel United or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Patro Eisden won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lommel United's record when hosting Patro Eisden specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Lommel United
1
Draws
4
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Patro Eisden?
From 6 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 1, Patro Eisden have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Lommel United 1-1 Patro Eisden.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 67%, Patro Eisden 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lommel United) and 46% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden in 38%; Patro Eisden in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Patro Eisden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lommel United's games and 50% of Patro Eisden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lommel United vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lommel United's recent games and 46% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Patro Eisden tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Patro Eisden in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United and Patro Eisden share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 23, as Lommel United and Patro Eisden drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.63 xG and Patro Eisden 1.59 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.37 / defence 1.13 against Patro Eisden attack 1.07 / defence 0.89, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 39% | Draw 23% | Patro Eisden 38%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 58%, Patro Eisden 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.36 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.