Lokeren-Temse 1-1 Olympic Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lokeren-Temse at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lokeren-Temse vs Olympic Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Lokeren-Temse welcome Olympic Charleroi to Daknamstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lokeren-Temse — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lokeren-Temse's home record at Daknamstadion: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Daknamstadion this season.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Olympic Charleroi have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Olympic Charleroi have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Lokeren-Temse carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lokeren-Temse register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Olympic Charleroi in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lokeren-Temse, 0 for Olympic Charleroi and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Lokeren-Temse winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lokeren-Temse in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Olympic Charleroi in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokeren-Temse 68% versus Olympic Charleroi 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokeren-Temse 50% | Olympic Charleroi 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 1.67 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.973 / defence 1.007 | Olympic Charleroi attack 0.954 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.333. Olympic Charleroi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Lokeren-Temse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Lokeren-Temse games / 22 Olympic Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 47% | Draw 24% | Olympic Charleroi 29%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Olympic Charleroi 3.45. Lokeren-Temse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lokeren-Temse at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lokeren-Temse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lokeren-Temse 70% | Olympic Charleroi 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokeren-Temse vs Olympic Charleroi | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Daknamstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 47% | Draw 24% | Olympic Charleroi 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Lokeren-Temse 1.67 / Olympic Charleroi 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.973 / def 1.007 | Olympic Charleroi attack 0.954 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Lokeren-Temse (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Lokeren-Temse xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Olympic Charleroi xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokeren-Temse vs Olympic Charleroi kick off?
Lokeren-Temse vs Olympic Charleroi kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Daknamstadion.
What was the final score in Lokeren-Temse vs Olympic Charleroi?
Lokeren-Temse 1 - 1 Olympic Charleroi.
Where is Lokeren-Temse vs Olympic Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Daknamstadion.
What competition is Lokeren-Temse vs Olympic Charleroi part of?
Lokeren-Temse vs Olympic Charleroi is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lokeren-Temse vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Lokeren-Temse a 47% chance of winning, Olympic Charleroi a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lokeren-Temse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokeren-Temse vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Lokeren-Temse and Olympic Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Lokeren-Temse vs Olympic Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Olympic Charleroi?
Record (1 meetings): Lokeren-Temse 1W | Draws 0 | Olympic Charleroi 0W.
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Olympic Charleroi in?
Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Olympic Charleroi (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lokeren-Temse's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Olympic Charleroi's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Olympic Charleroi's attack versus Lokeren-Temse's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokeren-Temse Win
47%
2.15
24%
4.16
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Lokeren-Temse xG
Total xG
2.95
1.28
Olympic Charleroi xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
6%
18.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokeren-Temse vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Lokeren-Temse and Olympic Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse and 1.28 for Olympic Charleroi, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokeren-Temse vs Olympic Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Lokeren-Temse have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 7W 8D 7L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lokeren-Temse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympic Charleroi's form line: 2W 6D 14L from 22 games, 0.55 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Olympic Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lokeren-Temse are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Olympic Charleroi.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lokeren-Temse have posted 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (2W 6D 2L).
On the road, Olympic Charleroi have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.55 PPG overall record — Olympic Charleroi travel well.
The Goals Picture
Lokeren-Temse are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Olympic Charleroi are on 0.77 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokeren-Temse have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokeren-Temse
Blended
Olympic Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Olympic Charleroi in coming into this match?
Lokeren-Temse have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while Olympic Charleroi have gone 2W 6D 14L in their last 22 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokeren-Temse at home or Olympic Charleroi away?
Lokeren-Temse's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokeren-Temse at home: 1.20 PPG; Olympic Charleroi away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lokeren-Temse and Olympic Charleroi runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lokeren-Temse
1
Draws
0
Olympic Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Olympic Charleroi?
From 2 meetings on record, Lokeren-Temse have won 1, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lokeren-Temse and Olympic Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Lokeren-Temse 1-1 Olympic Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Lokeren-Temse and Olympic Charleroi?
Lokeren-Temse have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lokeren-Temse at 70%, Olympic Charleroi at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lokeren-Temse) and 60% (Olympic Charleroi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympic Charleroi in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokeren-Temse home games / Olympic Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokeren-Temse play Olympic Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Lokeren-Temse's games and 60% of Olympic Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lokeren-Temse vs Olympic Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lokeren-Temse's matches and 60% of Olympic Charleroi's.
Do Lokeren-Temse and Olympic Charleroi tend to score early?
Lokeren-Temse have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Olympic Charleroi in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lokeren-Temse and Olympic Charleroi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 24, as Lokeren-Temse and Olympic Charleroi drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.67 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.28 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.95 / defence 1.26, drawn from 51/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 47% | Draw 24% | Olympic Charleroi 29%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 50%, Olympic Charleroi 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lokeren-Temse arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.