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Poisson rates Lokeren-Temse at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lokeren-Temse vs Olympic Charleroi encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Lokeren-Temse welcome Olympic Charleroi to Daknamstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Lokeren-Temse — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lokeren-Temse's home record at Daknamstadion: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Daknamstadion this season.

Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Olympic Charleroi have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Olympic Charleroi have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Lokeren-Temse carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lokeren-Temse register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Olympic Charleroi in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lokeren-Temse, 0 for Olympic Charleroi and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Lokeren-Temse winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Lokeren-Temse in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Olympic Charleroi in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokeren-Temse 68% versus Olympic Charleroi 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokeren-Temse 50% | Olympic Charleroi 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 1.67 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.973 / defence 1.007 | Olympic Charleroi attack 0.954 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.333. Olympic Charleroi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Lokeren-Temse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Lokeren-Temse games / 22 Olympic Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 47% | Draw 24% | Olympic Charleroi 29%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Olympic Charleroi 3.45. Lokeren-Temse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lokeren-Temse at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lokeren-Temse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lokeren-Temse 70% | Olympic Charleroi 60% BTTS from recent games.

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