SK Beveren 0-1 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees K. Lierse S.K. travel to Freethielstadion to take on SK Beveren. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 February 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SK Beveren have posted 4W 0D 5L at Freethielstadion — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, K. Lierse S.K. stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (SK Beveren) versus 1.10 (K. Lierse S.K.). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SK Beveren register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
K. Lierse S.K. trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SK Beveren 58% and K. Lierse S.K. 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SK Beveren 68% | K. Lierse S.K. 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.57 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.191 / defence 1.276 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.824 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.487. Data: 19 SK Beveren games / 19 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 36% | Draw 29% | K. Lierse S.K. 35%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | K. Lierse S.K. 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 67% | K. Lierse S.K. 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 36% | Draw 29% | K. Lierse S.K. 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 66% | xG SK Beveren 1.57 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.191 / def 1.276 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.824 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.56
K. Lierse S.K. xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 February 2022 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
SK Beveren 0 - 1 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 36% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SK Beveren's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against K. Lierse S.K.'s defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, K. Lierse S.K.'s attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
36%
2.81
29%
3.41
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
3.14
1.56
K. Lierse S.K. xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
7%
13.43
7%
13.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.56 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 9W 3D 7L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
K. Lierse S.K.'s form line: 5W 8D 6L from 19 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SK Beveren on 1.58 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (4W 0D 5L).
On the road, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.63 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. in 79%.
Last 19 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 9W 3D 7L in their last 19 games (1.58 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 5W 8D 6L in their last 19 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.33 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SK Beveren's record when hosting K. Lierse S.K. specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
SK Beveren
1
Draws
0
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 10 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 9, K. Lierse S.K. have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when SK Beveren 1-0 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K.?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SK Beveren at 67%, K. Lierse S.K. at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SK Beveren and 78% for K. Lierse S.K.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play K. Lierse S.K.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SK Beveren's games and 78% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SK Beveren's matches and 78% of K. Lierse S.K.'s.
Do SK Beveren and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as K. Lierse S.K. defy the odds to beat SK Beveren 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. beat SK Beveren 0-1 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.57 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.56 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SK Beveren fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.19 / defence 1.28 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.82 / defence 1.20, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 36% | Draw 29% | K. Lierse S.K. 35%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual K. Lierse S.K. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 68%, K. Lierse S.K. 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.58 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the K. Lierse S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.