Lommel United 3-0 Excelsior Virton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Soevereinstadion plays host to Lommel United versus Excelsior Virton in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 13 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lommel United's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United at Soevereinstadion this season: 2W 2D 5L from 9 home games — 0.89 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.89 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Lommel United are significantly better at Soevereinstadion than their overall form suggests.
Excelsior Virton (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior Virton's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 5L across 9 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.30 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Lommel United 0W, Excelsior Virton 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with Excelsior Virton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lommel United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Excelsior Virton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 63% versus Excelsior Virton 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 68% | Excelsior Virton 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.31 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.926 / defence 1.171 | Excelsior Virton attack 0.750 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.403. Excelsior Virton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Lommel United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Lommel United games / 19 Excelsior Virton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 39% | Draw 27% | Excelsior Virton 35%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Excelsior Virton 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lommel United as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lommel United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 67% | Excelsior Virton 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 39% | Draw 27% | Excelsior Virton 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Lommel United 1.31 / Excelsior Virton 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.926 / def 1.171 | Excelsior Virton attack 0.750 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Excelsior Virton xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton kick off?
Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Soevereinstadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton?
Lommel United 3 - 0 Excelsior Virton.
Where is Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton part of?
Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 39% chance of winning, Excelsior Virton a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lommel United and Excelsior Virton will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Excelsior Virton?
Record (2 meetings): Lommel United 0W | Draws 0 | Excelsior Virton 2W.
What form are Lommel United and Excelsior Virton in?
Lommel United (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Excelsior Virton (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lommel United's attack rating (0.93) and Excelsior Virton's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Excelsior Virton's attack (0.75x) against Lommel United's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
39%
2.59
27%
3.75
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.55
1.23
Excelsior Virton xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
9%
10.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Excelsior Virton expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.23 for Excelsior Virton, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lommel United come into this having played 19 games, going 4W 4D 11L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Excelsior Virton sit at 0.74 PPG from 19 outings (3W 5D 11L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Excelsior Virton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Lommel United against 0.74 for Excelsior Virton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lommel United's home form reads 2W 2D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Excelsior Virton have taken 0.67 points per game from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lommel United are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Excelsior Virton are on 0.84 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Excelsior Virton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Excelsior Virton in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 4W 4D 11L in their last 19 games (0.84 PPG), while Excelsior Virton have gone 3W 5D 11L in their last 19 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Excelsior Virton away?
Lommel United's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 0.89 PPG; Excelsior Virton away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 3-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lommel United have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior Virton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Lommel United
0
Draws
3
Excelsior Virton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Excelsior Virton?
From 8 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 5, Excelsior Virton have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Excelsior Virton last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when Excelsior Virton 0-1 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Excelsior Virton?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 67%, Excelsior Virton 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Lommel United) and 44% (Excelsior Virton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior Virton in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Excelsior Virton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Excelsior Virton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lommel United's games and 56% of Excelsior Virton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lommel United's matches and 44% of Excelsior Virton's.
Do Lommel United and Excelsior Virton tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Excelsior Virton in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lommel United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Excelsior Virton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Excelsior Virton 3-0 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.31 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.23 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Excelsior Virton landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.93 / defence 1.17 against Excelsior Virton attack 0.75 / defence 1.35, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 39% | Draw 27% | Excelsior Virton 35%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 68%, Excelsior Virton 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 0.84 PPG, Excelsior Virton 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Excelsior Virton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.