SK Beveren 1-0 RWDM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RWDM at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs RWDM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Freethielstadion plays host to SK Beveren versus RWDM in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 19 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SK Beveren have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Freethielstadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RWDM's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM's away record: 6W 2D 1L from 9 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (2.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. RWDM are 0.90 PPG clear of SK Beveren in recent Challenger Pro League fixtures (2.30 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
RWDM half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 55% versus RWDM 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 65% | RWDM 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.18 xG and RWDM 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.066 / defence 1.275 | RWDM attack 0.890 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.367. Data: 20 SK Beveren games / 20 RWDM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 29% | Draw 25% | RWDM 46%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | RWDM 2.17. RWDM hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates RWDM as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RWDM if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | RWDM 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs RWDM | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 29% | Draw 25% | RWDM 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG SK Beveren 1.18 / RWDM 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.066 / def 1.275 | RWDM attack 0.890 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: RWDM (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.55
RWDM xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs RWDM kick off?
SK Beveren vs RWDM kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs RWDM?
SK Beveren 1 - 0 RWDM.
Where is SK Beveren vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs RWDM part of?
SK Beveren vs RWDM is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 29% chance of winning, RWDM a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making RWDM the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SK Beveren and RWDM will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and RWDM?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Beveren and RWDM in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. RWDM (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SK Beveren's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against RWDM's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — RWDM's attack (0.89x) against SK Beveren's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RWDM Win
29%
3.44
25%
3.98
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.73
1.55
RWDM xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
6%
16.21
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.55 for RWDM, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs RWDM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SK Beveren come into this having played 20 games, going 9W 3D 8L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, RWDM sit at 1.75 PPG from 20 outings (10W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for SK Beveren against 1.75 for RWDM. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SK Beveren's home form reads 4W 0D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, RWDM have taken 2.22 points per game from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.75 PPG overall record — RWDM travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SK Beveren are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: RWDM in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
RWDM
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and RWDM in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 9W 3D 8L in their last 20 games (1.50 PPG), while RWDM have gone 10W 5D 5L in their last 20 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or RWDM away?
RWDM's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.33 PPG; RWDM away: 2.22 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or RWDM been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, RWDM in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SK Beveren go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RWDM — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SK Beveren
2
Draws
3
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and RWDM?
From 10 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 5, RWDM have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and RWDM last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when SK Beveren 3-2 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and RWDM?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 67%, RWDM 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SK Beveren) and 44% (RWDM). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RWDM in 44%; SK Beveren have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play RWDM?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SK Beveren's games and 56% of RWDM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs RWDM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SK Beveren's matches and 44% of RWDM's.
Do SK Beveren and RWDM tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, RWDM in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SK Beveren defy the odds to beat RWDM 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat RWDM 1-0 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.18 xG and RWDM 1.55 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RWDM landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.07 / defence 1.27 against RWDM attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 29% | Draw 25% | RWDM 46%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual SK Beveren win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 65%, RWDM 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
RWDM's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.50 PPG, RWDM 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. SK Beveren (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. RWDM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.