Royal Excel Mouscron 3-0 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Royal Excel Mouscron host SK Beveren at Stade Le Canonnier in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Royal Excel Mouscron — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Royal Excel Mouscron, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Royal Excel Mouscron's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 games at Stade Le Canonnier this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 1L across 9 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.22 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Royal Excel Mouscron at 1.80 PPG versus SK Beveren's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Royal Excel Mouscron, 1 for SK Beveren and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Royal Excel Mouscron winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Royal Excel Mouscron in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Royal Excel Mouscron 56% versus SK Beveren 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Royal Excel Mouscron 56% | SK Beveren 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Royal Excel Mouscron 0.85 xG and SK Beveren 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.843 / defence 0.937 | SK Beveren attack 1.068 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.546. Data: 18 Royal Excel Mouscron games / 18 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Royal Excel Mouscron 17% | Draw 33% | SK Beveren 50%. Fair-value odds: Royal Excel Mouscron 5.88 | Draw 3.03 | SK Beveren 2.00. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Royal Excel Mouscron 56% | SK Beveren 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Le Canonnier • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Royal Excel Mouscron 17% | Draw 33% | SK Beveren 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Royal Excel Mouscron 0.85 / SK Beveren 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.843 / def 0.937 | SK Beveren attack 1.068 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.546 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
Expected Goals
1.55
SK Beveren xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren kick off?
Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stade Le Canonnier.
What was the final score in Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren?
Royal Excel Mouscron 3 - 0 SK Beveren.
Where is Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Stade Le Canonnier.
What competition is Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren part of?
Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Royal Excel Mouscron a 17% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 50% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Royal Excel Mouscron and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Royal Excel Mouscron and SK Beveren?
Record (2 meetings): Royal Excel Mouscron 1W | Draws 0 | SK Beveren 1W.
What form are Royal Excel Mouscron and SK Beveren in?
Royal Excel Mouscron (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Royal Excel Mouscron's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against SK Beveren's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Royal Excel Mouscron's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-2 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
17%
5.85
33%
3.05
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
Total xG
2.40
1.55
SK Beveren xG
5.85
17%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
4%
27.50
21%
4.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 14.1 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Royal Excel Mouscron and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Royal Excel Mouscron and 1.55 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Royal Excel Mouscron have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 5W 5D 8L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Royal Excel Mouscron is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren's form line: 9W 3D 6L from 18 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Royal Excel Mouscron.
Venue Form
On home soil, Royal Excel Mouscron have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 5W 3D 1L from 9 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Royal Excel Mouscron are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.94 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SK Beveren in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Royal Excel Mouscron
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Royal Excel Mouscron and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 5W 5D 8L in their last 18 games (1.11 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 9W 3D 6L in their last 18 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Royal Excel Mouscron at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Royal Excel Mouscron at home: 1.33 PPG; SK Beveren away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when SK Beveren won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Royal Excel Mouscron's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Royal Excel Mouscron
0
Draws
2
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Royal Excel Mouscron and SK Beveren?
From 4 meetings on record, Royal Excel Mouscron have won 2, SK Beveren have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Royal Excel Mouscron and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when SK Beveren 2-0 Royal Excel Mouscron.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Royal Excel Mouscron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Royal Excel Mouscron 56%, SK Beveren 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Royal Excel Mouscron) and 67% (SK Beveren). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 44%; Royal Excel Mouscron have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Royal Excel Mouscron home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Royal Excel Mouscron play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Royal Excel Mouscron's games and 56% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Royal Excel Mouscron vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Royal Excel Mouscron's matches and 67% of SK Beveren's.
Do Royal Excel Mouscron and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Royal Excel Mouscron have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Royal Excel Mouscron run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SK Beveren.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Royal Excel Mouscron beat SK Beveren 3-0 at Stade Le Canonnier, Regular Season - 19, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Royal Excel Mouscron 0.85 xG and SK Beveren 1.55 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Royal Excel Mouscron beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SK Beveren landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.84 / defence 0.94 against SK Beveren attack 1.07 / defence 0.92, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Royal Excel Mouscron 17% | Draw 33% | SK Beveren 50%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Royal Excel Mouscron win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Royal Excel Mouscron 56%, SK Beveren 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Royal Excel Mouscron's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
SK Beveren's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Royal Excel Mouscron winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Royal Excel Mouscron (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.