Royal Excel Mouscron 2-0 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Deinze at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Royal Excel Mouscron host Deinze at Stade Le Canonnier in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Royal Excel Mouscron stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Royal Excel Mouscron, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Royal Excel Mouscron's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 3L across 5 games at Stade Le Canonnier this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Deinze have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze's away record: 1W 4D 0L from 5 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Deinze — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Royal Excel Mouscron register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Deinze in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Royal Excel Mouscron, 1 for Deinze and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Deinze winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Royal Excel Mouscron in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Deinze in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Royal Excel Mouscron 60% and Deinze 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Royal Excel Mouscron 60% | Deinze 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Royal Excel Mouscron 0.96 xG and Deinze 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.724 / defence 1.206 | Deinze attack 0.930 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.567. Royal Excel Mouscron's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Royal Excel Mouscron games / 10 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Royal Excel Mouscron 17% | Draw 30% | Deinze 53%. Fair-value odds: Royal Excel Mouscron 5.88 | Draw 3.33 | Deinze 1.89. Deinze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deinze at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Royal Excel Mouscron 60% | Deinze 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Le Canonnier • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Royal Excel Mouscron 17% | Draw 30% | Deinze 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Royal Excel Mouscron 0.96 / Deinze 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.724 / def 1.206 | Deinze attack 0.930 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.567 • Poisson stance: Deinze (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Deinze xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze kick off?
Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stade Le Canonnier.
What was the final score in Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze?
Royal Excel Mouscron 2 - 0 Deinze.
Where is Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Stade Le Canonnier.
What competition is Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze part of?
Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Royal Excel Mouscron a 17% chance of winning, Deinze a 53% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze?
Record (1 meetings): Royal Excel Mouscron 0W | Draws 0 | Deinze 1W.
What form are Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze in?
Royal Excel Mouscron (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Deinze (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Royal Excel Mouscron's attack at 0.72x the league average against Deinze's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Royal Excel Mouscron's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
17%
5.83
30%
3.32
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
Total xG
2.72
1.76
Deinze xG
5.83
17%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
3%
33.77
20%
4.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.6 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Royal Excel Mouscron and 1.76 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Royal Excel Mouscron come into this having played 10 games, going 1W 3D 6L for 0.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Royal Excel Mouscron is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deinze sit at 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (3W 6D 1L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deinze carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Royal Excel Mouscron — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Royal Excel Mouscron's home form reads 0W 2D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Deinze have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (1W 4D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Royal Excel Mouscron are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Royal Excel Mouscron have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Deinze in 80%.
Last 10 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Royal Excel Mouscron
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze in coming into this match?
Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 games (0.60 PPG), while Deinze have gone 3W 6D 1L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Royal Excel Mouscron at home or Deinze away?
Deinze's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Royal Excel Mouscron at home: 0.40 PPG; Deinze away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Royal Excel Mouscron's record when hosting Deinze specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Royal Excel Mouscron
1
Draws
2
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze?
From 4 meetings on record, Royal Excel Mouscron have won 1, Deinze have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2022, when Royal Excel Mouscron 1-2 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze?
Deinze have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Royal Excel Mouscron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Royal Excel Mouscron at 60%, Deinze at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Royal Excel Mouscron) and 60% (Deinze).
On the defensive side: Royal Excel Mouscron have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Royal Excel Mouscron home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Royal Excel Mouscron play Deinze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Royal Excel Mouscron's games and 80% of Deinze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Royal Excel Mouscron vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Royal Excel Mouscron's recent games and 60% of Deinze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Royal Excel Mouscron and Deinze tend to score early?
Royal Excel Mouscron have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Deinze in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Royal Excel Mouscron cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Deinze.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Royal Excel Mouscron beat Deinze 2-0 at Stade Le Canonnier, Regular Season - 11, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Royal Excel Mouscron 0.96 xG and Deinze 1.76 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Royal Excel Mouscron beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Deinze landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.72 / defence 1.21 against Deinze attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Royal Excel Mouscron 17% | Draw 30% | Deinze 53%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Royal Excel Mouscron win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Royal Excel Mouscron 60%, Deinze 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Royal Excel Mouscron's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Deinze's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Royal Excel Mouscron winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Royal Excel Mouscron (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.