Deinze 2-1 KVC Westerlo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates KVC Westerlo at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Deinze vs KVC Westerlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deinze host KVC Westerlo at Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deinze stand at 2W 6D 1L from 9 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.56 goals per game, with 1.22 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Deinze have posted 1W 2D 1L at Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, KVC Westerlo have recorded 7W 2D 0L from 9 outings — 2.56 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.89 per game and conceding 0.67. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for KVC Westerlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, KVC Westerlo have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour KVC Westerlo — 1.23 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.56 vs 1.33). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Deinze, 0 for KVC Westerlo and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Deinze in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
KVC Westerlo in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deinze 78% and KVC Westerlo 44% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 56% | KVC Westerlo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 0.96 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 0.872 / defence 0.983 | KVC Westerlo attack 0.954 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.465. Data: 9 Deinze games / 9 KVC Westerlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deinze 22% | Draw 35% | KVC Westerlo 43%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 4.55 | Draw 2.86 | KVC Westerlo 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KVC Westerlo are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KVC Westerlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Deinze 75% | KVC Westerlo 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs KVC Westerlo | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 22% | Draw 35% | KVC Westerlo 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Deinze 0.96 / KVC Westerlo 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 0.872 / def 0.983 | KVC Westerlo attack 0.954 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: KVC Westerlo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.38
KVC Westerlo xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs KVC Westerlo kick off?
Deinze vs KVC Westerlo kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion.
What was the final score in Deinze vs KVC Westerlo?
Deinze 2 - 1 KVC Westerlo.
Where is Deinze vs KVC Westerlo being played?
The match is being played at Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion.
What competition is Deinze vs KVC Westerlo part of?
Deinze vs KVC Westerlo is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs KVC Westerlo?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 22% chance of winning, KVC Westerlo a 43% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making KVC Westerlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs KVC Westerlo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Deinze and KVC Westerlo will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs KVC Westerlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and KVC Westerlo?
Record (1 meetings): Deinze 0W | Draws 1 | KVC Westerlo 0W.
What form are Deinze and KVC Westerlo in?
Deinze (all comps): 2W-6D-1L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. KVC Westerlo (all comps): 7W-2D-0L in 9 | 2.56 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Deinze's attack rating (0.87) and KVC Westerlo's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, KVC Westerlo's attack versus Deinze's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KVC Westerlo Win
22%
4.47
35%
2.86
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Deinze xG
Total xG
2.33
1.38
KVC Westerlo xG
4.47
22%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
6%
17.66
16%
6.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.3 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs KVC Westerlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Deinze and KVC Westerlo expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Deinze and 1.38 for KVC Westerlo, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs KVC Westerlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Deinze come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 6D 1L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, KVC Westerlo sit at 2.56 PPG from 9 outings (7W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for KVC Westerlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KVC Westerlo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.23 PPG clear of Deinze — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Deinze's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, KVC Westerlo have taken 3.00 points per game from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 2.56 PPG overall record — KVC Westerlo travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KVC Westerlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Deinze are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; KVC Westerlo are on 1.89 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Defensively: KVC Westerlo in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Blended
KVC Westerlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and KVC Westerlo in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 2W 6D 1L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while KVC Westerlo have gone 7W 2D 0L in their last 9 (2.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or KVC Westerlo away?
KVC Westerlo's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 1.25 PPG; KVC Westerlo away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Deinze or KVC Westerlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deinze have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, KVC Westerlo in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2022, when Deinze won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deinze's record when hosting KVC Westerlo specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Deinze
1
Draws
1
KVC Westerlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and KVC Westerlo?
From 4 meetings on record, Deinze have won 2, KVC Westerlo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and KVC Westerlo last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2022, when Deinze 1-2 KVC Westerlo.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and KVC Westerlo?
Deinze have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deinze 75%, KVC Westerlo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Deinze) and 50% (KVC Westerlo).
On the defensive side: KVC Westerlo in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / KVC Westerlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play KVC Westerlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Deinze's games and 50% of KVC Westerlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deinze vs KVC Westerlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Deinze's recent games and 50% of KVC Westerlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deinze and KVC Westerlo tend to score early?
Deinze have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, KVC Westerlo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Deinze defy the odds to beat KVC Westerlo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat KVC Westerlo 2-1 at Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 0.96 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.38 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Deinze beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against KVC Westerlo attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 22% | Draw 35% | KVC Westerlo 43%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Deinze win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 56%, KVC Westerlo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KVC Westerlo arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Deinze winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.