RWDM 3-3 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates K. Lierse S.K. at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as RWDM welcome K. Lierse S.K. to Edmond Machtens-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, RWDM have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM's home record at Edmond Machtens-Stadion: 1W 1D 3L from 5 Challenger Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
K. Lierse S.K. — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
K. Lierse S.K.'s away record: 1W 1D 3L from 5 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (RWDM) versus 1.50 (K. Lierse S.K.). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
RWDM trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
K. Lierse S.K. trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RWDM 80% and K. Lierse S.K. 90% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (RWDM 70% | K. Lierse S.K. 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 1.40 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 0.873 / defence 1.237 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.899 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.513. K. Lierse S.K. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.373 — this is suppressing RWDM's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 RWDM games / 10 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RWDM 29% | Draw 30% | K. Lierse S.K. 41%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | K. Lierse S.K. 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on K. Lierse S.K. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RWDM 80% | K. Lierse S.K. 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Edmond Machtens-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 29% | Draw 30% | K. Lierse S.K. 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 64% | xG RWDM 1.40 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 0.873 / def 1.237 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.899 / def 1.373 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.513 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
1.68
K. Lierse S.K. xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Edmond Machtens-Stadion.
What was the final score in RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
RWDM 3 - 3 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtens-Stadion.
What competition is RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 29% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and K. Lierse S.K.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. in?
RWDM (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates RWDM's attack at 0.87x the league average against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, K. Lierse S.K.'s attack versus RWDM's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
29%
3.49
30%
3.31
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
RWDM xG
Total xG
3.08
1.68
K. Lierse S.K. xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
5%
18.77
10%
9.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for RWDM and 1.68 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RWDM come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 3D 4L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, K. Lierse S.K. sit at 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RWDM on 1.20 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
RWDM's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, K. Lierse S.K. have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of K. Lierse S.K.'s season.
Goals in Recent Form
RWDM are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RWDM have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; K. Lierse S.K. in 90%.
Last 10 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Blended
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
RWDM have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RWDM at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
RWDM's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RWDM at home: 0.80 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when RWDM won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RWDM's record when hosting K. Lierse S.K. specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
RWDM
2
Draws
1
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 10 meetings on record, RWDM have won 7, K. Lierse S.K. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when RWDM 1-1 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between RWDM and K. Lierse S.K.?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — RWDM at 80%, K. Lierse S.K. at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for RWDM and 80% for K. Lierse S.K.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RWDM play K. Lierse S.K.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of RWDM's games and 100% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RWDM vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of RWDM's matches and 80% of K. Lierse S.K.'s.
Do RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
RWDM have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RWDM and K. Lierse S.K. finished level at 3-3 at Edmond Machtens-Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.40 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.68 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. RWDM beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. K. Lierse S.K. outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 0.87 / defence 1.24 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.90 / defence 1.37, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 29% | Draw 30% | K. Lierse S.K. 41%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 70%, K. Lierse S.K. 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 85%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RWDM's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RWDM 1.20 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. RWDM (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.