Excelsior Virton 0-2 Royal Excel Mouscron – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior Virton at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Yvan Georges plays host to Excelsior Virton versus Royal Excel Mouscron in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 29 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Excelsior Virton have collected 1.00 PPG across 9 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior Virton's home record at Stade Yvan Georges: 2W 1D 1L from 4 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Excelsior Virton are significantly better at Stade Yvan Georges than their overall form suggests.
Royal Excel Mouscron's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 0W 3D 6L from 9 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 2.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.22 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Royal Excel Mouscron, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Royal Excel Mouscron have posted 0W 1D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Excelsior Virton's 1.00 PPG return is 0.67 points per game ahead of Royal Excel Mouscron's 0.33 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Excelsior Virton register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Royal Excel Mouscron in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Excelsior Virton 0W, Royal Excel Mouscron 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Excelsior Virton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Royal Excel Mouscron goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior Virton 56% and Royal Excel Mouscron 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior Virton 33% | Royal Excel Mouscron 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior Virton 1.72 xG and Royal Excel Mouscron 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior Virton attack 0.931 / defence 1.075 | Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.742 / defence 1.528. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.384. Royal Excel Mouscron bring a strong defensive rating of 1.528 — this is suppressing Excelsior Virton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Excelsior Virton games / 9 Royal Excel Mouscron games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 48% | Draw 31% | Royal Excel Mouscron 21%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior Virton 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Royal Excel Mouscron 4.76. Excelsior Virton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior Virton are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior Virton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior Virton 75% | Royal Excel Mouscron 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Yvan Georges • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 48% | Draw 31% | Royal Excel Mouscron 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Excelsior Virton 1.72 / Royal Excel Mouscron 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior Virton attack 0.931 / def 1.075 | Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.742 / def 1.528 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Excelsior Virton (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Excelsior Virton xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron kick off?
Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 October 2021 at Stade Yvan Georges.
What was the final score in Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Excelsior Virton 0 - 2 Royal Excel Mouscron.
Where is Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yvan Georges.
What competition is Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron part of?
Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior Virton a 48% chance of winning, Royal Excel Mouscron a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Excelsior Virton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior Virton 0W | Draws 1 | Royal Excel Mouscron 0W.
What form are Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron in?
Excelsior Virton (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.56 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Royal Excel Mouscron (all comps): 0W-3D-6L in 9 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 2.22 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Excelsior Virton's attack at 0.93x the league average against Royal Excel Mouscron's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Royal Excel Mouscron's attack (0.74x) against Excelsior Virton's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Virton Win
48%
2.07
31%
3.27
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Excelsior Virton xG
Total xG
2.82
1.10
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
4%
26.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Excelsior Virton and 1.10 for Royal Excel Mouscron, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Excelsior Virton come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 3D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Excelsior Virton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Royal Excel Mouscron sit at 0.33 PPG from 9 outings (0W 3D 6L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Royal Excel Mouscron is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior Virton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Royal Excel Mouscron — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Excelsior Virton's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Excelsior Virton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Royal Excel Mouscron have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior Virton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior Virton are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Royal Excel Mouscron are on 0.78 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Royal Excel Mouscron in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior Virton
Blended
Royal Excel Mouscron
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron in coming into this match?
Excelsior Virton have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 0W 3D 6L in their last 9 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior Virton at home or Royal Excel Mouscron away?
Excelsior Virton's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior Virton at home: 1.75 PPG; Royal Excel Mouscron away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior Virton have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Royal Excel Mouscron — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Excelsior Virton
1
Draws
2
Royal Excel Mouscron
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior Virton have won 1, Royal Excel Mouscron have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2022, when Excelsior Virton 2-0 Royal Excel Mouscron.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron?
Royal Excel Mouscron have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Royal Excel Mouscron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Excelsior Virton, 75% for Royal Excel Mouscron — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Excelsior Virton and 100% for Royal Excel Mouscron. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior Virton home games / Royal Excel Mouscron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior Virton play Royal Excel Mouscron?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Excelsior Virton's games and 75% of Royal Excel Mouscron's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior Virton vs Royal Excel Mouscron usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Excelsior Virton's matches and 100% of Royal Excel Mouscron's.
Do Excelsior Virton and Royal Excel Mouscron tend to score early?
Excelsior Virton have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Royal Excel Mouscron in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Royal Excel Mouscron cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Excelsior Virton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Royal Excel Mouscron beat Excelsior Virton 0-2 at Stade Yvan Georges, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior Virton 1.72 xG and Royal Excel Mouscron 1.10 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Excelsior Virton fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Royal Excel Mouscron outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior Virton attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.74 / defence 1.53, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior Virton 48% | Draw 31% | Royal Excel Mouscron 21%, with Excelsior Virton to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Royal Excel Mouscron win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior Virton 33%, Royal Excel Mouscron 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Royal Excel Mouscron's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior Virton arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Royal Excel Mouscron winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Excelsior Virton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Royal Excel Mouscron (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.