Olympic Charleroi 0-2 RWDM – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates RWDM at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympic Charleroi vs RWDM encounter.

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Match Analysis

Olympic Charleroi host RWDM at Stade de la Neuville in Challenger Pro League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Olympic Charleroi have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Olympic Charleroi have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 home games (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

RWDM — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

RWDM's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RWDM — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, RWDM 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 6.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Olympic Charleroi 3–3 RWDM — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Olympic Charleroi in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

RWDM in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympic Charleroi 48% versus RWDM 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympic Charleroi 56% | RWDM 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympic Charleroi 0.66 xG and RWDM 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.516 / defence 1.384 | RWDM attack 0.911 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.386. Olympic Charleroi's attack rating of 0.516 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. Olympic Charleroi's defence rating of 1.384 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing RWDM's projected output up. Data: built from Olympic Charleroi's last 25 games and RWDM's last 55.

Result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 14% | Draw 23% | RWDM 64%. Fair-value odds: Olympic Charleroi 7.40 | Draw 4.39 | RWDM 1.57. The model has a clear lean to RWDM (64%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates RWDM as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Olympic Charleroi 30% (last 10 home games) | RWDM 50% (last 10 away games).

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