Lommel United 3-1 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lommel United face Francs Borains.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Francs Borains make the trip to Soevereinstadion to face Lommel United in Challenger Pro League (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Lommel United (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Lommel United's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Francs Borains's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Francs Borains have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Lommel United, 1.10 for Francs Borains — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Lommel United, 1 for Francs Borains and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Lommel United 0–0 Francs Borains — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lommel United — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Francs Borains — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 59% versus Francs Borains 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 54% | Francs Borains 50%). Note also that Francs Borains surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Lommel United recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.83 xG and Francs Borains 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 1.094 / defence 0.933 | Francs Borains attack 0.785 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.377. Francs Borains's defence rating of 1.246 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lommel United's projected output up. Francs Borains's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Lommel United's last 57 games and Francs Borains's last 56.
Result probabilities: Lommel United 57% | Draw 23% | Francs Borains 21%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 1.76 | Draw 4.40 | Francs Borains 4.88. The model has a clear lean to Lommel United (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lommel United as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lommel United's last 10 home games and Francs Borains's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lommel United 60% (last 10 home games) | Francs Borains 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 30 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 57% | Draw 23% | Francs Borains 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Lommel United 1.83 / Francs Borains 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 1.094 / def 0.933 | Francs Borains attack 0.785 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Francs Borains xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lommel United vs Francs Borains FAQs
What time does Lommel United vs Francs Borains kick off?
Lommel United vs Francs Borains kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Soevereinstadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Francs Borains?
Lommel United 3 - 1 Francs Borains.
Where is Lommel United vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Francs Borains part of?
Lommel United vs Francs Borains is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 30) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 57% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lommel United and Francs Borains will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lommel United vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 1.09x the league average against Francs Borains's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Francs Borains's attack (0.79x) against Lommel United's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Lommel United's last 57 games and Francs Borains's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.40
21%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.84
1.01
Francs Borains xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
4.88
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
3%
30.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lommel United vs Francs Borains Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.01 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Francs Borains?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lommel United's recent record stands at 21W 14D 21L from 56 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Francs Borains, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 29L across 56 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Lommel United against 1.05 for Francs Borains. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lommel United have managed 8W 8D 12L from their last 28 home games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Francs Borains's away record stands at 8W 5D 15L across their last 28 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lommel United are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.00 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Current Season
Francs Borains
Blended
Lommel United (Home) vs Francs Borains (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lommel United
Current Season
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Lommel United vs Francs Borains Form FAQs
What form are Lommel United and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 21W 14D 21L in their last 56 games (1.38 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 16W 11D 29L in their last 56 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Francs Borains away?
Lommel United's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.14 PPG; Francs Borains away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Lommel United and Francs Borains, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won Lommel United 3-0 Francs Borains on 24 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lommel United have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Francs Borains — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Lommel United
1
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Lommel United vs Francs Borains H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Francs Borains?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lommel United have won 4, Francs Borains have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Francs Borains last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Lommel United 3-1 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Francs Borains?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 64%, Francs Borains 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lommel United) and 57% (Francs Borains).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lommel United vs Francs Borains Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lommel United and Francs Borains matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lommel United's games and 50% of Francs Borains's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lommel United and Francs Borains matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Lommel United's recent games and 57% of Francs Borains's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Francs Borains matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Lommel United's recent matches and 75% of Francs Borains's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Francs Borains 3-1 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.83 xG and Francs Borains 1.01 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.09 / defence 0.93 against Francs Borains attack 0.79 / defence 1.25, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 57% | Draw 23% | Francs Borains 21%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 54%, Francs Borains 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Francs Borains's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.38 PPG, Francs Borains 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. Francs Borains (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.