Lommel United 3-1 Excelsior Virton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Soevereinstadion plays host to Lommel United versus Excelsior Virton in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 28 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lommel United's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United at Soevereinstadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Excelsior Virton (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior Virton's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Lommel United 2W, Excelsior Virton 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with Lommel United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lommel United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Excelsior Virton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 55% versus Excelsior Virton 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 60% | Excelsior Virton 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.41 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.879 / defence 1.143 | Excelsior Virton attack 0.800 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.515. Data: 38 Lommel United games / 38 Excelsior Virton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 36% | Draw 29% | Excelsior Virton 35%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Excelsior Virton 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lommel United as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lommel United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 40% | Excelsior Virton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 36% | Draw 29% | Excelsior Virton 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Lommel United 1.41 / Excelsior Virton 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.879 / def 1.143 | Excelsior Virton attack 0.800 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.515 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Excelsior Virton xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton kick off?
Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 October 2022 at Soevereinstadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton?
Lommel United 3 - 1 Excelsior Virton.
Where is Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton part of?
Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 36% chance of winning, Excelsior Virton a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Lommel United and Excelsior Virton will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Excelsior Virton?
Record (4 meetings): Lommel United 2W | Draws 0 | Excelsior Virton 2W.
What form are Lommel United and Excelsior Virton in?
Lommel United (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Excelsior Virton (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lommel United's attack rating (0.88) and Excelsior Virton's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Excelsior Virton's attack (0.80x) against Lommel United's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
36%
2.79
29%
3.39
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.79
1.39
Excelsior Virton xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
9%
11.15
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Excelsior Virton expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.39 for Excelsior Virton, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lommel United come into this having played 38 games, going 13W 8D 17L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Excelsior Virton sit at 0.79 PPG from 38 outings (6W 12D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Excelsior Virton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Excelsior Virton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lommel United's home form reads 6W 4D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Excelsior Virton have taken 0.63 points per game from 19 outings (2W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lommel United are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Excelsior Virton are on 0.95 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Excelsior Virton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Excelsior Virton in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Excelsior Virton have gone 6W 12D 20L in their last 38 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Excelsior Virton away?
Lommel United's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.16 PPG; Excelsior Virton away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 3-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lommel United have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior Virton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Lommel United
0
Draws
3
Excelsior Virton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Excelsior Virton?
From 8 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 5, Excelsior Virton have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Excelsior Virton last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when Excelsior Virton 0-1 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Excelsior Virton?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 53%, Excelsior Virton 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lommel United) and 58% (Excelsior Virton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United have failed to score in 37% of games; Excelsior Virton in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Excelsior Virton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Excelsior Virton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Lommel United's games and 63% of Excelsior Virton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lommel United vs Excelsior Virton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Lommel United's matches and 58% of Excelsior Virton's.
Do Lommel United and Excelsior Virton tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Excelsior Virton in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Excelsior Virton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Excelsior Virton 3-1 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.41 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.39 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Excelsior Virton attack 0.80 / defence 1.12, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 36% | Draw 29% | Excelsior Virton 35%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 60%, Excelsior Virton 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Excelsior Virton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.