SK Beveren 3-0 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as SK Beveren welcome KRC Genk II to Freethielstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Freethielstadion this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
KRC Genk II — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SK Beveren register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, KRC Genk II in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SK Beveren 60% and KRC Genk II 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SK Beveren 80% | KRC Genk II 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 2.40 xG and KRC Genk II 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.271 / defence 0.928 | KRC Genk II attack 0.888 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.482. SK Beveren carry an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing SK Beveren's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 SK Beveren games / 10 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 62% | Draw 20% | KRC Genk II 17%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | KRC Genk II 5.88. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | KRC Genk II 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 62% | Draw 20% | KRC Genk II 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 65% | xG SK Beveren 2.40 / KRC Genk II 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.271 / def 0.928 | KRC Genk II attack 0.888 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.22
KRC Genk II xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II kick off?
SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
SK Beveren 3 - 0 KRC Genk II.
Where is SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II part of?
SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 62% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both SK Beveren and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and KRC Genk II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Beveren and KRC Genk II in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SK Beveren's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against KRC Genk II's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.40. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
62%
1.60
20%
4.90
17%
5.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
3.62
1.22
KRC Genk II xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
5.84
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
9%
11.00
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
2%
64.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.22 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 5W 3D 2L from 10 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 6L across 10 games — 0.80 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — SK Beveren are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SK Beveren are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SK Beveren have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; KRC Genk II in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 games (1.80 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or KRC Genk II away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.50 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.50 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or KRC Genk II been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, KRC Genk II in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SK Beveren's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
SK Beveren
2
Draws
1
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and KRC Genk II?
From 8 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 5, KRC Genk II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 17 December 2025, when KRC Genk II 1-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and KRC Genk II?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SK Beveren at 75%, KRC Genk II at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for SK Beveren and 75% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SK Beveren's games and 100% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of SK Beveren's matches and 75% of KRC Genk II's.
Do SK Beveren and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SK Beveren run riot with a 3-0 hammering of KRC Genk II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat KRC Genk II 3-0 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 2.40 xG and KRC Genk II 1.22 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. KRC Genk II landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.27 / defence 0.93 against KRC Genk II attack 0.89 / defence 1.24, drawn from 38/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 62% | Draw 20% | KRC Genk II 17%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 80%, KRC Genk II 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SK Beveren (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.