K. Lierse S.K. 3-1 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates K. Lierse S.K. at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lommel United make the trip to Herman Vanderpoortenstadion to face K. Lierse S.K. in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
K. Lierse S.K. have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Lommel United's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lommel United have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for K. Lierse S.K., 1.50 for Lommel United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — K. Lierse S.K. lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 0–2 with Lommel United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
K. Lierse S.K. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Lommel United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — K. Lierse S.K. 65% versus Lommel United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (K. Lierse S.K. 60% | Lommel United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.74 xG and Lommel United 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.263 / defence 0.931 | Lommel United attack 1.053 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.525. K. Lierse S.K. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 K. Lierse S.K. games / 37 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 42% | Draw 27% | Lommel United 31%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Lommel United 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, K. Lierse S.K. are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on K. Lierse S.K. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates are neutral: K. Lierse S.K. 50% | Lommel United 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 42% | Draw 27% | Lommel United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.74 / Lommel United 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.263 / def 0.931 | Lommel United attack 1.053 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.525 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Lommel United xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United?
K. Lierse S.K. 3 - 1 Lommel United.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 42% chance of winning, Lommel United a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United?
Record (2 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 1W | Draws 0 | Lommel United 1W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Lommel United (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 1.26x the league average against Lommel United's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lommel United's attack (1.05x) against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
42%
2.39
27%
3.75
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
3.23
1.49
Lommel United xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
9%
10.64
6%
18.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.49 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, K. Lierse S.K. have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 14W 10D 13L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United's form line: 13W 8D 16L from 37 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for K. Lierse S.K. against 1.27 for Lommel United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 7W 4D 7L from 18 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.43 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 14W 10D 13L in their last 37 games (1.41 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 13W 8D 16L in their last 37 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or Lommel United away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.61 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 3-0 on 17 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lommel United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
K. Lierse S.K.
2
Draws
4
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 4, Lommel United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when Lommel United 4-3 K. Lierse S.K..
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 61%, Lommel United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (K. Lierse S.K.) and 61% (Lommel United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 56% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 61% of Lommel United's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and Lommel United tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
K. Lierse S.K. cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lommel United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. beat Lommel United 3-1 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.74 xG and Lommel United 1.49 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.26 / defence 0.93 against Lommel United attack 1.05 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 42% | Draw 27% | Lommel United 31%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 60%, Lommel United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Lommel United's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.41 PPG, Lommel United 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the K. Lierse S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. Lommel United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.