Excelsior Virton 0-1 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior Virton at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior Virton vs Deinze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Deinze travel to Stade Yvan Georges to take on Excelsior Virton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior Virton stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Yvan Georges, Excelsior Virton have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Deinze have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Excelsior Virton) versus 1.00 (Deinze). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Deinze, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Excelsior Virton.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Deinze have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Excelsior Virton in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Deinze in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior Virton 56% and Deinze 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior Virton 51% | Deinze 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior Virton 1.41 xG and Deinze 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior Virton attack 0.828 / defence 1.020 | Deinze attack 0.679 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.411. Data: 39 Excelsior Virton games / 39 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 46% | Draw 28% | Deinze 25%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior Virton 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Deinze 4.00. Excelsior Virton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior Virton at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior Virton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior Virton 50% | Deinze 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior Virton vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Yvan Georges • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 46% | Draw 28% | Deinze 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Excelsior Virton 1.41 / Deinze 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior Virton attack 0.828 / def 1.020 | Deinze attack 0.679 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Excelsior Virton (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Excelsior Virton xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Deinze xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior Virton vs Deinze kick off?
Excelsior Virton vs Deinze kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stade Yvan Georges.
What was the final score in Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Excelsior Virton 0 - 1 Deinze.
Where is Excelsior Virton vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yvan Georges.
What competition is Excelsior Virton vs Deinze part of?
Excelsior Virton vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior Virton a 46% chance of winning, Deinze a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Excelsior Virton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Excelsior Virton and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior Virton vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Deinze?
Record (5 meetings): Excelsior Virton 0W | Draws 2 | Deinze 3W.
What form are Excelsior Virton and Deinze in?
Excelsior Virton (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Deinze (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Excelsior Virton's attack rating (0.83) and Deinze's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Excelsior Virton's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Virton Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.51
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Excelsior Virton xG
Total xG
2.39
0.98
Deinze xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
6%
16.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Excelsior Virton and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Excelsior Virton and 0.98 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior Virton vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Excelsior Virton come into this having played 39 games, going 6W 12D 21L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Excelsior Virton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deinze sit at 1.28 PPG from 39 outings (12W 14D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deinze carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Excelsior Virton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Excelsior Virton's home form reads 4W 6D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Deinze have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (4W 7D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior Virton are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.56 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze in 67%.
Last 39 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior Virton
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior Virton and Deinze in coming into this match?
Excelsior Virton have gone 6W 12D 21L in their last 39 games (0.77 PPG), while Deinze have gone 12W 14D 13L in their last 39 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior Virton at home or Deinze away?
Deinze's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior Virton at home: 0.95 PPG; Deinze away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Deinze have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2021, when Deinze won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior Virton's record when hosting Deinze specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Excelsior Virton
2
Draws
6
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Deinze?
From 8 meetings on record, Excelsior Virton have won 0, Deinze have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior Virton and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Deinze 3-1 Excelsior Virton.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior Virton and Deinze?
Deinze have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior Virton 47%, Deinze 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Excelsior Virton) and 53% (Deinze).
On the defensive side: Excelsior Virton have failed to score in 42% of games; Deinze in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior Virton home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior Virton play Deinze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Excelsior Virton's recent matches and 58% of Deinze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior Virton vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Excelsior Virton's recent games and 53% of Deinze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior Virton and Deinze tend to score early?
Excelsior Virton have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Deinze in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Deinze defy the odds to beat Excelsior Virton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat Excelsior Virton 0-1 at Stade Yvan Georges, Regular Season - 12, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior Virton 1.41 xG and Deinze 0.98 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Excelsior Virton fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior Virton attack 0.83 / defence 1.02 against Deinze attack 0.68 / defence 1.11, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior Virton 46% | Draw 28% | Deinze 25%, with Excelsior Virton to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Deinze win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior Virton 51%, Deinze 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Deinze's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.77. Form held, and they took the win. Excelsior Virton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Deinze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.