KRC Genk II 1-0 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 43%, yet in-form SK Beveren provide a compelling counter-argument — this KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KRC Genk II host SK Beveren at Stadion De Leunen in Challenger Pro League (matchday 1). Kick-off is Sunday 13 August 2023 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
KRC Genk II — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, KRC Genk II have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, SK Beveren have recorded 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
SK Beveren's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of KRC Genk II's games and 60% of SK Beveren's (from KRC Genk II's last 10 home games and SK Beveren's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for KRC Genk II, 1 for SK Beveren and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Feb 2023, ended KRC Genk II 2–2 SK Beveren — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 56% versus SK Beveren 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 56% | SK Beveren 72%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: KRC Genk II surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while SK Beveren have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.68 xG and SK Beveren 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 1.002 / defence 1.022 | SK Beveren attack 1.056 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.368. Data: built from KRC Genk II's last 22 games and SK Beveren's last 22. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 43% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 34%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 2.35 | Draw 4.26 | SK Beveren 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KRC Genk II are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SK Beveren (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (KRC Genk II's last 10 home games and SK Beveren's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KRC Genk II 60% (last 10 home games) | SK Beveren 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (KRC Genk II 22 games, SK Beveren 22) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 1 | Venue: Stadion De Leunen • Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 43% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG KRC Genk II 1.68 / SK Beveren 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 1.002 / def 1.022 | SK Beveren attack 1.056 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.48
SK Beveren xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren FAQs
What time does KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren kick off?
KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Stadion De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
KRC Genk II 1 - 0 SK Beveren.
Where is KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren part of?
KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 1) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 43% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both KRC Genk II and SK Beveren will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates KRC Genk II's attack at 1.00x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from KRC Genk II's last 22 games and SK Beveren's last 22, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
43%
2.35
23%
4.26
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
3.16
1.48
SK Beveren xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
6%
15.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.48 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, KRC Genk II have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 6W 8D 18L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
SK Beveren's form line: 20W 8D 4L from 32 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KRC Genk II.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, KRC Genk II have posted 0.88 PPG from their last 16 home games (3W 5D 8L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 7W 6D 3L from their last 16 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SK Beveren's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.38 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Pre-Season
SK Beveren
Pre-Season
KRC Genk II (Home) vs SK Beveren (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KRC Genk II
Pre-Season
SK Beveren
Pre-Season
❓ KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren Form FAQs
What form are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 6W 8D 18L in their last 32 games (0.81 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 20W 8D 4L in their last 32 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 0.88 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.69 PPG.
Have KRC Genk II or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
KRC Genk II have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 17 December 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won SK Beveren 3-0 KRC Genk II.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
KRC Genk II
2
Draws
5
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, KRC Genk II have won 1, SK Beveren have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and SK Beveren last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 December 2025: KRC Genk II 1-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 56%, SK Beveren 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for KRC Genk II and 69% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 31%; KRC Genk II have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KRC Genk II and SK Beveren matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of KRC Genk II's games and 56% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of KRC Genk II's matches and 69% of SK Beveren's.
Do KRC Genk II and SK Beveren matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 81% of SK Beveren's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KRC Genk II edge out SK Beveren 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II beat SK Beveren 1-0 at Stadion De Leunen, Regular Season - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.68 xG and SK Beveren 1.48 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SK Beveren landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against SK Beveren attack 1.06 / defence 0.97, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 43% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 34%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 56%, SK Beveren 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
SK Beveren's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with KRC Genk II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.