KRC Genk II 1-0 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 43%, yet in-form SK Beveren provide a compelling counter-argument — this KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KRC Genk II host SK Beveren at Stadion De Leunen in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 August 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
KRC Genk II — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. KRC Genk II haven't played a Challenger Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadion De Leunen, KRC Genk II have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. SK Beveren haven't played a Challenger Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
SK Beveren's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. KRC Genk II register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SK Beveren in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, KRC Genk II have won 0, SK Beveren 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 56% versus SK Beveren 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 56% | SK Beveren 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.68 xG and SK Beveren 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 1.002 / defence 1.022 | SK Beveren attack 1.056 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.368. Data: 22 KRC Genk II games / 22 SK Beveren games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 43% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 34%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | SK Beveren 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KRC Genk II are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SK Beveren (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: KRC Genk II 60% | SK Beveren 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion De Leunen • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 43% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG KRC Genk II 1.68 / SK Beveren 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 1.002 / def 1.022 | SK Beveren attack 1.056 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.48
SK Beveren xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren kick off?
KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Stadion De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
KRC Genk II 1 - 0 SK Beveren.
Where is KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren part of?
KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 43% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both KRC Genk II and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren?
Record (2 meetings): KRC Genk II 0W | Draws 1 | SK Beveren 1W.
What form are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. KRC Genk II (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates KRC Genk II's attack at 1.00x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
43%
2.35
23%
4.26
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
3.16
1.48
SK Beveren xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
6%
15.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.48 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, KRC Genk II have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 6W 8D 18L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. KRC Genk II haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
SK Beveren's form line: 20W 8D 4L from 32 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. SK Beveren haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KRC Genk II.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, KRC Genk II have posted 0.88 PPG from 16 outings (3W 5D 8L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 7W 6D 3L from 16 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SK Beveren's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.38 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Pre-Season
SK Beveren
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 6W 8D 18L in their last 32 games (0.81 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 20W 8D 4L in their last 32 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 0.88 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.69 PPG.
Have KRC Genk II or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
KRC Genk II have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
KRC Genk II
2
Draws
5
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren?
From 8 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 1, SK Beveren have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 17 December 2025, when KRC Genk II 1-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 56%, SK Beveren 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for KRC Genk II and 69% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 31%; KRC Genk II have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of KRC Genk II's games and 56% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KRC Genk II vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of KRC Genk II's matches and 69% of SK Beveren's.
Do KRC Genk II and SK Beveren tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KRC Genk II edge out SK Beveren 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II beat SK Beveren 1-0 at Stadion De Leunen, Regular Season - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.68 xG and SK Beveren 1.48 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SK Beveren landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against SK Beveren attack 1.06 / defence 0.97, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 43% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 34%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 56%, SK Beveren 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
SK Beveren's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with KRC Genk II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.