Zulte Waregem 1-3 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Zulte Waregem welcome Francs Borains to Elindus Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 August 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Zulte Waregem haven't played a Challenger Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zulte Waregem have posted 1W 4D 5L at Elindus Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.49 xG and Francs Borains 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Francs Borains attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.220. Data: 0 Zulte Waregem games / 0 Francs Borains games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 44% | Draw 26% | Francs Borains 30%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Francs Borains 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zulte Waregem at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 44% | Draw 26% | Francs Borains 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.49 / Francs Borains 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Francs Borains attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Francs Borains xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains?
Zulte Waregem 1 - 3 Francs Borains.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 44% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 0.85x the league average against Francs Borains's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Francs Borains's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.91
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.68
1.19
Francs Borains xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
7%
14.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.19 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Pre-Season
Francs Borains
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Francs Borains specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
2
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains?
From 4 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, Francs Borains have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Francs Borains 1-3 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains?
Francs Borains have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Francs Borains cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat Zulte Waregem 1-3 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.49 xG and Francs Borains 1.19 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Francs Borains outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Francs Borains attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 44% | Draw 26% | Francs Borains 30%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Francs Borains win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.