SK Beveren 4-1 Club Brugge II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SK Beveren at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SK Beveren and Club Brugge II meet at Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League, Promotion Round - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
SK Beveren's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
SK Beveren's home record at Freethielstadion: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Club Brugge II have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Club Brugge II have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in SK Beveren's favour (2.50 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for SK Beveren, 1 for Club Brugge II and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 0–3 with Club Brugge II winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SK Beveren — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Club Brugge II — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SK Beveren 58% and Club Brugge II 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SK Beveren 71% | Club Brugge II 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 2.05 xG and Club Brugge II 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.344 / defence 0.929 | Club Brugge II attack 0.809 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.453. SK Beveren carry an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — their λ of 2.05 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 SK Beveren games / 22 Club Brugge II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 60% | Draw 21% | Club Brugge II 20%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Club Brugge II 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | Club Brugge II 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Promotion Round - 10 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 60% | Draw 21% | Club Brugge II 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG SK Beveren 2.05 / Club Brugge II 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.344 / def 0.929 | Club Brugge II attack 0.809 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Club Brugge II xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II kick off?
SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II?
SK Beveren 4 - 1 Club Brugge II.
Where is SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II part of?
SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II is a Promotion Round - 10 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 60% chance of winning, Club Brugge II a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SK Beveren and Club Brugge II will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Club Brugge II?
Record (3 meetings): SK Beveren 1W | Draws 1 | Club Brugge II 1W.
What form are SK Beveren and Club Brugge II in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Club Brugge II (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SK Beveren's attack at 1.34x the league average against Club Brugge II's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Club Brugge II's attack (0.81x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 50/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
60%
1.68
21%
4.78
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
3.15
1.09
Club Brugge II xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
13%
7.79
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
3%
39.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Club Brugge II expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.09 for Club Brugge II, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SK Beveren come into this having played 31 games, going 19W 8D 4L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Club Brugge II sit at 1.58 PPG from 31 outings (14W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Club Brugge II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SK Beveren's home form reads 12W 2D 1L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.10 PPG overall — SK Beveren are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Club Brugge II have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SK Beveren are averaging 2.32 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge II are on 1.61 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Club Brugge II in 65%.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Current Season
Club Brugge II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Club Brugge II in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 19W 8D 4L in their last 31 games (2.10 PPG), while Club Brugge II have gone 14W 7D 10L in their last 31 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Club Brugge II away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.53 PPG; Club Brugge II away: 1.20 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Club Brugge II been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Club Brugge II in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Club Brugge II won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Club Brugge II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
3
Draws
3
Club Brugge II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Club Brugge II?
From 10 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 4, Club Brugge II have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Club Brugge II last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Club Brugge II 2-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Club Brugge II?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Club Brugge II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 60%, Club Brugge II 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for SK Beveren and 67% for Club Brugge II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Club Brugge II in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Club Brugge II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Club Brugge II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of SK Beveren's games and 67% of Club Brugge II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of SK Beveren's matches and 67% of Club Brugge II's.
Do SK Beveren and Club Brugge II tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Club Brugge II in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SK Beveren run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Club Brugge II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Club Brugge II 4-1 at Freethielstadion, Promotion Round - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 2.05 xG and Club Brugge II 1.09 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.34 / defence 0.93 against Club Brugge II attack 0.81 / defence 1.07, drawn from 50/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 60% | Draw 21% | Club Brugge II 20%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 71%, Club Brugge II 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Club Brugge II's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.58. Form held, and they took the win. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.67 average — above their attacking norm. Club Brugge II (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.