Patro Eisden 3-1 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Patro Eisden face Deinze.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Patro Eisden and Deinze meet at Patro Stadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 1). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Deinze's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Deinze's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.45 xG and Deinze 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Deinze attack 0.942 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.807 / away 1.476. Data: built from Patro Eisden's last 0 games and Deinze's last 22. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 35% | Draw 24% | Deinze 41%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.87 | Draw 4.17 | Deinze 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.45 / 1.60) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deinze if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Patro Eisden 0 games, Deinze 22) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 1 | Venue: Patro Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 35% | Draw 24% | Deinze 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Patro Eisden 1.45 / Deinze 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Deinze attack 0.942 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.807 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Deinze (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Deinze xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Patro Eisden vs Deinze FAQs
What time does Patro Eisden vs Deinze kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Deinze kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Patro Stadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Deinze?
Patro Eisden 3 - 1 Deinze.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Patro Stadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Deinze part of?
Patro Eisden vs Deinze is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 1) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 35% chance of winning, Deinze a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Patro Eisden and Deinze will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Patro Eisden vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Patro Eisden's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Deinze's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Deinze's attack (0.94x) against Patro Eisden's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from Patro Eisden's last 0 games and Deinze's last 22, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
35%
2.87
24%
4.17
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
3.05
1.60
Deinze xG
2.87
35%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
7%
14.21
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Patro Eisden vs Deinze Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.60 for Deinze, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Pre-Season
Deinze
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Patro Eisden (Home) vs Deinze (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Patro Eisden
Pre-Season
Deinze
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Patro Eisden and Deinze, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 4 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Deinze won Patro Eisden 0-4 Deinze on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Patro Eisden have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Deinze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
2
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Patro Eisden vs Deinze H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Deinze?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Patro Eisden have won 2, Deinze have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Deinze last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 October 2024: Patro Eisden 3-1 Deinze.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Patro Eisden cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Deinze.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat Deinze 3-1 at Patro Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.45 xG and Deinze 1.60 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Deinze attack 0.94 / defence 0.95, drawn from 0/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 35% | Draw 24% | Deinze 41%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Patro Eisden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.