K. Lierse S.K. 0-1 Seraing United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this K. Lierse S.K. vs Seraing United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Seraing United travel to Herman Vanderpoortenstadion to take on K. Lierse S.K.. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, K. Lierse S.K. stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Seraing United — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Seraing United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Seraing United have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (K. Lierse S.K.) versus 0.90 (Seraing United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of K. Lierse S.K.: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Seraing United, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives K. Lierse S.K. a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
K. Lierse S.K. in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Seraing United in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — K. Lierse S.K. 49% versus Seraing United 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (K. Lierse S.K. 49% | Seraing United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.31 xG and Seraing United 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.944 / defence 0.995 | Seraing United attack 0.661 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.311. Data: 51 K. Lierse S.K. games / 51 Seraing United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 47% | Draw 28% | Seraing United 25%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Seraing United 4.00. K. Lierse S.K. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, K. Lierse S.K. are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on K. Lierse S.K. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 50% | Seraing United 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs Seraing United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 47% | Draw 28% | Seraing United 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.31 / Seraing United 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.944 / def 0.995 | Seraing United attack 0.661 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Seraing United xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs Seraing United kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Seraing United kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Seraing United?
K. Lierse S.K. 0 - 1 Seraing United.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs Seraing United being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs Seraing United part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Seraing United is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs Seraing United?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 47% chance of winning, Seraing United a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Seraing United?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and Seraing United will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs Seraing United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Seraing United?
Record (5 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 3W | Draws 2 | Seraing United 0W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Seraing United in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Seraing United (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 0.94x the league average against Seraing United's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Seraing United's attack versus K. Lierse S.K.'s defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.52
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
2.17
0.86
Seraing United xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
7%
15.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Seraing United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Seraing United expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 0.86 for Seraing United, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Seraing United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, K. Lierse S.K. have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 17W 13D 21L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Seraing United's form line: 7W 18D 26L from 51 games, 0.76 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Seraing United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, K. Lierse S.K. are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Seraing United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 1.60 PPG from 25 outings (11W 7D 7L).
On the road, Seraing United have gone 4W 10D 11L from 25 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, K. Lierse S.K. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Seraing United are on 0.98 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
Seraing United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Seraing United in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 17W 13D 21L in their last 51 games (1.25 PPG), while Seraing United have gone 7W 18D 26L in their last 51 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or Seraing United away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.60 PPG; Seraing United away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between K. Lierse S.K. and Seraing United runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
K. Lierse S.K.'s record when hosting Seraing United specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
K. Lierse S.K.
3
Draws
1
Seraing United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Seraing United?
From 7 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 3, Seraing United have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and Seraing United last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Seraing United 1-1 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and Seraing United?
K. Lierse S.K. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Seraing United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 48%, Seraing United 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (K. Lierse S.K.) and 52% (Seraing United).
On the defensive side: K. Lierse S.K. keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; K. Lierse S.K. have failed to score in 28% of games; Seraing United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / Seraing United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play Seraing United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent matches and 52% of Seraing United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs Seraing United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent games and 52% of Seraing United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and Seraing United tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Seraing United in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Seraing United defy the odds to beat K. Lierse S.K. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seraing United beat K. Lierse S.K. 0-1 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.31 xG and Seraing United 0.86 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. K. Lierse S.K. fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Seraing United attack 0.66 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 47% | Draw 28% | Seraing United 25%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Seraing United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 49%, Seraing United 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Seraing United's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, K. Lierse S.K. arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Seraing United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Seraing United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.