KAA Gent II 1-3 Olympic Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KAA Gent II at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KAA Gent II vs Olympic Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympic Charleroi make the trip to Planet Group Arena to face KAA Gent II in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KAA Gent II have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KAA Gent II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KAA Gent II at Planet Group Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Olympic Charleroi's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympic Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in KAA Gent II's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — KAA Gent II have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Olympic Charleroi in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — KAA Gent II lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2025, ended 4–1 with KAA Gent II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
KAA Gent II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Olympic Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KAA Gent II 48% versus Olympic Charleroi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KAA Gent II 52% | Olympic Charleroi 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KAA Gent II 1.50 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KAA Gent II attack 0.926 / defence 1.174 | Olympic Charleroi attack 0.904 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.350. Olympic Charleroi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing KAA Gent II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 KAA Gent II games / 23 Olympic Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KAA Gent II 39% | Draw 25% | Olympic Charleroi 36%. Fair-value odds: KAA Gent II 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Olympic Charleroi 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KAA Gent II as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KAA Gent II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: KAA Gent II 60% | Olympic Charleroi 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KAA Gent II vs Olympic Charleroi | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KAA Gent II 39% | Draw 25% | Olympic Charleroi 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG KAA Gent II 1.50 / Olympic Charleroi 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: KAA Gent II attack 0.926 / def 1.174 | Olympic Charleroi attack 0.904 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: KAA Gent II (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
KAA Gent II xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Olympic Charleroi xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KAA Gent II vs Olympic Charleroi kick off?
KAA Gent II vs Olympic Charleroi kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at Planet Group Arena.
What was the final score in KAA Gent II vs Olympic Charleroi?
KAA Gent II 1 - 3 Olympic Charleroi.
Where is KAA Gent II vs Olympic Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is KAA Gent II vs Olympic Charleroi part of?
KAA Gent II vs Olympic Charleroi is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KAA Gent II vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives KAA Gent II a 39% chance of winning, Olympic Charleroi a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KAA Gent II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KAA Gent II vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both KAA Gent II and Olympic Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will KAA Gent II vs Olympic Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between KAA Gent II and Olympic Charleroi?
Record (1 meetings): KAA Gent II 1W | Draws 0 | Olympic Charleroi 0W.
What form are KAA Gent II and Olympic Charleroi in?
KAA Gent II (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Olympic Charleroi (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
KAA Gent II's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Olympic Charleroi's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Olympic Charleroi's attack (0.90x) against KAA Gent II's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KAA Gent II Win
39%
2.56
25%
4.06
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
KAA Gent II xG
Total xG
2.93
1.43
Olympic Charleroi xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
9%
10.71
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KAA Gent II vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are KAA Gent II and Olympic Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for KAA Gent II and 1.43 for Olympic Charleroi, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for KAA Gent II vs Olympic Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KAA Gent II's recent record stands at 10W 3D 10L from 23 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for KAA Gent II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympic Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 2W 7D 14L across 23 games — 0.57 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Olympic Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KAA Gent II by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Olympic Charleroi heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, KAA Gent II have managed 3W 3D 5L from 11 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Olympic Charleroi's away record stands at 2W 5D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.57 PPG overall record — Olympic Charleroi travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KAA Gent II are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Olympic Charleroi are on 0.78 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KAA Gent II
Blended
Olympic Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KAA Gent II and Olympic Charleroi in coming into this match?
KAA Gent II have gone 10W 3D 10L in their last 23 games (1.43 PPG), while Olympic Charleroi have gone 2W 7D 14L in their last 23 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KAA Gent II at home or Olympic Charleroi away?
KAA Gent II's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KAA Gent II at home: 1.09 PPG; Olympic Charleroi away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
KAA Gent II
0
Draws
1
Olympic Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KAA Gent II and Olympic Charleroi?
From 2 meetings on record, KAA Gent II have won 1, Olympic Charleroi have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did KAA Gent II and Olympic Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when KAA Gent II 1-3 Olympic Charleroi.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KAA Gent II see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KAA Gent II 54%, Olympic Charleroi 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (KAA Gent II) and 54% (Olympic Charleroi).
On the defensive side: KAA Gent II have failed to score in 36% of games; Olympic Charleroi in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KAA Gent II home games / Olympic Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KAA Gent II play Olympic Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of KAA Gent II's games and 64% of Olympic Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KAA Gent II vs Olympic Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of KAA Gent II's recent games and 54% of Olympic Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KAA Gent II and Olympic Charleroi tend to score early?
KAA Gent II have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Olympic Charleroi in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympic Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over KAA Gent II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympic Charleroi beat KAA Gent II 1-3 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KAA Gent II 1.50 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.43 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Olympic Charleroi outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KAA Gent II attack 0.93 / defence 1.17 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.90 / defence 1.22, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KAA Gent II 39% | Draw 25% | Olympic Charleroi 36%, with KAA Gent II to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Olympic Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KAA Gent II 52%, Olympic Charleroi 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KAA Gent II's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, KAA Gent II arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.57. Form was overturned, with Olympic Charleroi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KAA Gent II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.