K. Lierse S.K. 1-2 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates K. Lierse S.K. at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this K. Lierse S.K. vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
K. Lierse S.K. and Beerschot VA meet at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
K. Lierse S.K.'s overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
Beerschot VA (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for K. Lierse S.K. against 1.40 for Beerschot VA. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for K. Lierse S.K., 4 for Beerschot VA and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Beerschot VA winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
K. Lierse S.K. half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Beerschot VA half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — K. Lierse S.K. 47% versus Beerschot VA 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (K. Lierse S.K. 47% | Beerschot VA 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.38 xG and Beerschot VA 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.973 / defence 0.923 | Beerschot VA attack 0.882 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.291. Data: 49 K. Lierse S.K. games / 21 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 44% | Draw 27% | Beerschot VA 29%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Beerschot VA 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on K. Lierse S.K. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: K. Lierse S.K. 40% | Beerschot VA 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 44% | Draw 27% | Beerschot VA 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.38 / Beerschot VA 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.973 / def 0.923 | Beerschot VA attack 0.882 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Beerschot VA xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs Beerschot VA kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Beerschot VA?
K. Lierse S.K. 1 - 2 Beerschot VA.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs Beerschot VA part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 44% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Beerschot VA?
Record (7 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 3W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 4W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Beerschot VA in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Beerschot VA (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from K. Lierse S.K.'s attack rating (0.97) and Beerschot VA's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (0.88x) against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 49/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.70
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
2.43
1.05
Beerschot VA xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
7%
13.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.05 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
K. Lierse S.K. come into this having played 49 games, going 17W 13D 19L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beerschot VA sit at 1.24 PPG from 49 outings (16W 13D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for K. Lierse S.K. against 1.24 for Beerschot VA. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
K. Lierse S.K.'s home form reads 11W 7D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Beerschot VA have taken 0.92 points per game from 24 outings (6W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, K. Lierse S.K. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.22 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 17W 13D 19L in their last 49 games (1.31 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 16W 13D 20L in their last 49 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or Beerschot VA away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.67 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.92 PPG.
Have K. Lierse S.K. or Beerschot VA been keeping clean sheets recently?
K. Lierse S.K. have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Beerschot VA in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Beerschot VA have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
K. Lierse S.K.
0
Draws
5
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Beerschot VA?
From 8 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 3, Beerschot VA have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when K. Lierse S.K. 1-2 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 46%, Beerschot VA 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (K. Lierse S.K.) and 58% (Beerschot VA). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: K. Lierse S.K. keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; K. Lierse S.K. have failed to score in 29% of games; Beerschot VA in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play Beerschot VA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent matches and 54% of Beerschot VA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 58% of Beerschot VA's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beerschot VA defy the odds to beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-2 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.38 xG and Beerschot VA 1.05 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Beerschot VA outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.97 / defence 0.92 against Beerschot VA attack 0.88 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 44% | Draw 27% | Beerschot VA 29%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Beerschot VA win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 47%, Beerschot VA 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.31 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beerschot VA win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.