Kortrijk 3-2 Lokeren-Temse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kortrijk vs Lokeren-Temse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lokeren-Temse make the trip to Guldensporen Stadion to face Kortrijk in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Kortrijk (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk's home record at Guldensporen Stadion: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guldensporen Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Kortrijk are significantly better at Guldensporen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lokeren-Temse have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Lokeren-Temse have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Kortrijk, 1.80 for Lokeren-Temse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kortrijk lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Lokeren-Temse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 52% versus Lokeren-Temse 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 56% | Lokeren-Temse 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.58 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 1.419 / defence 0.974 | Lokeren-Temse attack 1.025 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.291. Kortrijk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.419 — their λ of 1.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 21 Kortrijk games / 50 Lokeren-Temse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 44% | Draw 25% | Lokeren-Temse 31%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Lokeren-Temse 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kortrijk are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kortrijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 50% | Lokeren-Temse 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Lokeren-Temse | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Guldensporen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 44% | Draw 25% | Lokeren-Temse 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Kortrijk 1.58 / Lokeren-Temse 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 1.419 / def 0.974 | Lokeren-Temse attack 1.025 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Lokeren-Temse xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Lokeren-Temse kick off?
Kortrijk vs Lokeren-Temse kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Guldensporen Stadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Lokeren-Temse?
Kortrijk 3 - 2 Lokeren-Temse.
Where is Kortrijk vs Lokeren-Temse being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporen Stadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Lokeren-Temse part of?
Kortrijk vs Lokeren-Temse is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 44% chance of winning, Lokeren-Temse a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Kortrijk and Lokeren-Temse will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Lokeren-Temse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Lokeren-Temse?
Record (1 meetings): Kortrijk 0W | Draws 1 | Lokeren-Temse 0W.
What form are Kortrijk and Lokeren-Temse in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kortrijk's attack rating (1.42) and Lokeren-Temse's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lokeren-Temse's attack (1.02x) against Kortrijk's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 21/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
44%
2.26
25%
4.06
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.87
1.29
Lokeren-Temse xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
6%
15.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Lokeren-Temse expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.29 for Lokeren-Temse, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Lokeren-Temse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kortrijk come into this having played 54 games, going 23W 10D 21L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lokeren-Temse sit at 1.39 PPG from 54 outings (20W 15D 19L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Lokeren-Temse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Kortrijk against 1.39 for Lokeren-Temse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kortrijk's home form reads 14W 5D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Lokeren-Temse have taken 1.52 points per game from 27 outings (12W 5D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kortrijk are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Lokeren-Temse are on 1.22 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Lokeren-Temse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Lokeren-Temse in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 23W 10D 21L in their last 54 games (1.46 PPG), while Lokeren-Temse have gone 20W 15D 19L in their last 54 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Lokeren-Temse away?
Kortrijk's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.74 PPG; Lokeren-Temse away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kortrijk
1
Draws
0
Lokeren-Temse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Lokeren-Temse?
From 2 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 1, Lokeren-Temse have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Lokeren-Temse last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Kortrijk 3-2 Lokeren-Temse.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Lokeren-Temse?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 56%, Lokeren-Temse 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kortrijk) and 44% (Lokeren-Temse).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Lokeren-Temse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Lokeren-Temse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 52% of Lokeren-Temse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Lokeren-Temse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Kortrijk's recent games and 44% of Lokeren-Temse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Lokeren-Temse tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Lokeren-Temse in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kortrijk edge out Lokeren-Temse 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Lokeren-Temse 3-2 at Guldensporen Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.58 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.29 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kortrijk beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 1.42 / defence 0.97 against Lokeren-Temse attack 1.02 / defence 0.84, drawn from 21/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 44% | Draw 25% | Lokeren-Temse 31%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 56%, Lokeren-Temse 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.46 PPG, Lokeren-Temse 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.