🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Francs Borains at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympic Charleroi vs Francs Borains fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stade de la Neuville plays host to Olympic Charleroi versus Francs Borains in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Olympic Charleroi's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Olympic Charleroi at Stade de la Neuville this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 home games — 0.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.20 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de la Neuville this season.

Francs Borains (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Francs Borains have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Olympic Charleroi, 1.00 for Francs Borains — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Olympic Charleroi lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Olympic Charleroi winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Olympic Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

Francs Borains half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympic Charleroi 48% versus Francs Borains 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympic Charleroi 57% | Francs Borains 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympic Charleroi 0.86 xG and Francs Borains 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.528 / defence 1.340 | Francs Borains attack 0.744 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.318. Olympic Charleroi's attack strength of 0.528 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Francs Borains bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Olympic Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Olympic Charleroi games / 49 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 25% | Draw 28% | Francs Borains 47%. Fair-value odds: Olympic Charleroi 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Francs Borains 2.13. Francs Borains hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Francs Borains at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Francs Borains if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympic Charleroi 30% | Francs Borains 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights