Francs Borains 0-0 RWDM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Francs Borains at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Francs Borains face RWDM.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Francs Borains host RWDM at Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Francs Borains have gone 4W 0D 6L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
RWDM — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
RWDM away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Francs Borains at 1.20 PPG versus RWDM's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Francs Borains have won 1, RWDM 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Francs Borains 3–1 RWDM — a Francs Borains win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Francs Borains trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
RWDM trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 48% versus RWDM 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 54% | RWDM 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.19 xG and RWDM 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.849 / defence 0.819 | RWDM attack 1.039 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.335. Data: built from Francs Borains's last 50 games and RWDM's last 51.
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 37% | Draw 28% | RWDM 35%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 2.68 | Draw 3.55 | RWDM 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Francs Borains as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Francs Borains offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Francs Borains 10% (last 10 home games) | RWDM 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs RWDM | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 37% | Draw 28% | RWDM 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Francs Borains 1.19 / RWDM 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.849 / def 0.819 | RWDM attack 1.039 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.14
RWDM xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Francs Borains vs RWDM FAQs
What time does Francs Borains vs RWDM kick off?
Francs Borains vs RWDM kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs RWDM?
Francs Borains 0 - 0 RWDM.
Where is Francs Borains vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs RWDM part of?
Francs Borains vs RWDM is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 37% chance of winning, RWDM a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Francs Borains and RWDM will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Francs Borains vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against RWDM's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, RWDM's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Francs Borains's last 50 games and RWDM's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
37%
2.68
28%
3.55
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.33
1.14
RWDM xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Francs Borains vs RWDM Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.14 for RWDM, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs RWDM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 15W 9D 26L from 50 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five.
RWDM, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 16L across 50 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours RWDM by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Francs Borains heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Francs Borains have managed 7W 5D 12L from their last 24 home games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RWDM's away record stands at 10W 6D 8L across their last 24 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Francs Borains are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.58 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: RWDM in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
RWDM
Blended
Francs Borains (Home) vs RWDM (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Francs Borains
Blended
RWDM
Blended
❓ Francs Borains vs RWDM Form FAQs
What form are Francs Borains and RWDM in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 15W 9D 26L in their last 50 games (1.08 PPG), while RWDM have gone 24W 10D 16L in their last 50 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or RWDM away?
RWDM's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.08 PPG; RWDM away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Francs Borains or RWDM been keeping clean sheets recently?
Francs Borains have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, RWDM in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2024. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 8 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Francs Borains's record when hosting RWDM specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
1
Draws
2
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ Francs Borains vs RWDM H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and RWDM?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Francs Borains have won 1, RWDM have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and RWDM last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2026: Francs Borains 0-0 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and RWDM?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 46%, RWDM 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Francs Borains) and 50% (RWDM).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; RWDM in 38%; Francs Borains have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Francs Borains vs RWDM Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Francs Borains and RWDM matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 50% of RWDM's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Francs Borains and RWDM matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Francs Borains's recent games and 50% of RWDM's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and RWDM matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 62% of RWDM's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Francs Borains's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 24, as Francs Borains and RWDM drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.19 xG and RWDM 1.14 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Francs Borains fell 1.2 short of their projected output. RWDM landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.85 / defence 0.82 against RWDM attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 37% | Draw 28% | RWDM 35%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 54%, RWDM 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RWDM's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. RWDM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.