Club Brugge II 2-2 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 74% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Schiervelde Stadion plays host to Club Brugge II versus SK Beveren in Challenger Pro League (matchday 30). Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Club Brugge II have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Club Brugge II's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
SK Beveren (all games): 10W 0D 0L across their last 10 — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, SK Beveren have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SK Beveren are 2.00 PPG clear of Club Brugge II over their recent games (3.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Club Brugge II, 4 for SK Beveren and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Club Brugge II 1–2 SK Beveren — a SK Beveren win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Club Brugge II half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Club Brugge II 56% versus SK Beveren 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Club Brugge II 60% | SK Beveren 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Club Brugge II 0.95 xG and SK Beveren 2.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Club Brugge II attack 0.834 / defence 1.284 | SK Beveren attack 1.522 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.378. SK Beveren have an above-average attack rating of 1.522, which lifts their away xG to 2.69. Club Brugge II's defence rating of 1.284 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SK Beveren's projected output up. Data: built from Club Brugge II's last 57 games and SK Beveren's last 56.
Result probabilities: Club Brugge II 11% | Draw 15% | SK Beveren 74%. Fair-value odds: Club Brugge II 9.28 | Draw 6.65 | SK Beveren 1.35. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (74%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.64 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Club Brugge II's last 10 home games and SK Beveren's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Club Brugge II 40% (last 10 home games) | SK Beveren 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 30 | Venue: Schiervelde Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Club Brugge II 11% | Draw 15% | SK Beveren 74% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Club Brugge II 0.95 / SK Beveren 2.69 • Poisson strength factors: Club Brugge II attack 0.834 / def 1.284 | SK Beveren attack 1.522 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Club Brugge II xG
Expected Goals
2.69
SK Beveren xG
57%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren FAQs
What time does Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren kick off?
Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Schiervelde Stadion.
What was the final score in Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren?
Club Brugge II 2 - 2 SK Beveren.
Where is Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Schiervelde Stadion.
What competition is Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren part of?
Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 30) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Club Brugge II a 11% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 74% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Club Brugge II and SK Beveren will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Club Brugge II's attack at 0.83x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SK Beveren's attack (1.52x) against Club Brugge II's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 2.69.
These ratings are built from Club Brugge II's last 57 games and SK Beveren's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-3 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
11%
9.28
15%
6.65
74%
1.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 3
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Club Brugge II xG
Total xG
3.64
2.69
SK Beveren xG
9.28
11%
Home win
6.65
15%
Draw
1.35
74%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
7%
14.76
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
1%
136.93
29%
3.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 3.1 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Club Brugge II and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Club Brugge II and 2.69 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Club Brugge II have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 18W 10D 29L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
SK Beveren's form line: 37W 12D 8L from 57 games, 2.16 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Club Brugge II.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Club Brugge II have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 28 home games (11W 3D 14L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 18W 5D 5L from their last 28 away games — 2.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Club Brugge II are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.81 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Club Brugge II
Current Season
SK Beveren
Blended
Club Brugge II (Home) vs SK Beveren (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Club Brugge II
Current Season
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren Form FAQs
What form are Club Brugge II and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Club Brugge II have gone 18W 10D 29L in their last 57 games (1.12 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 37W 12D 8L in their last 57 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Club Brugge II at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Club Brugge II at home: 1.29 PPG; SK Beveren away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Club Brugge II or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Club Brugge II have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Club Brugge II and SK Beveren, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Club Brugge II won Club Brugge II 3-0 SK Beveren on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Club Brugge II have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SK Beveren — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Club Brugge II
3
Draws
4
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge II and SK Beveren?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Club Brugge II have won 3, SK Beveren have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Club Brugge II and SK Beveren last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Club Brugge II 2-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Club Brugge II and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Club Brugge II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Club Brugge II 39%, SK Beveren 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Club Brugge II) and 57% (SK Beveren). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 39%; Club Brugge II have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Club Brugge II home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Club Brugge II vs SK Beveren Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Club Brugge II and SK Beveren matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Club Brugge II's recent matches and 50% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Club Brugge II and SK Beveren matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Club Brugge II's matches and 57% of SK Beveren's.
Do Club Brugge II and SK Beveren matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Club Brugge II's recent matches and 75% of SK Beveren's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Club Brugge II and SK Beveren share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Schiervelde Stadion, Regular Season - 30, as Club Brugge II and SK Beveren drew 2-2 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge II 0.95 xG and SK Beveren 2.69 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Club Brugge II beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge II attack 0.83 / defence 1.28 against SK Beveren attack 1.52 / defence 0.84, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Club Brugge II 11% | Draw 15% | SK Beveren 74%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge II 60%, SK Beveren 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Club Brugge II's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
SK Beveren's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.